Catch the new nuclear moment

The United States is initiating 8212; in cooperation with Russia, UK, France, China and Japan 8212; a new era of nuclear energy. The risin...

The United States is initiating 8212; in cooperation with Russia, UK, France, China and Japan 8212; a new era of nuclear energy. The rising price of oil, its rapid depletion, environmental concerns and the growing demand for energy, have compelled the US and other nuclear states to rethink the role of nuclear energy and also the advisability of the reprocessing and use of plutonium in fast breeder reactors. The US will restart its research on nuclear reactors on a massive scale in collaboration with other nuclear countries. As happened with rocket and missile programmes, in which Russia was ahead of the US it sent the Sputnik up first but was soon overtaken by the latter, the US is likely to emerge on top in fast breeder reactors too.

Such a situation had not been anticipated when India and the US signed the July 18 joint statement. It was a world in which the Nonproliferation Ayatollahs and those opposed to plutonium use were far more influential. Yet the US administration was prepared to make India an exception to NPT if certain minimal conditions were fulfilled 8212; such as the separation of its civil and military nuclear programmes. In India those who are still living in the Cold War era are worried that the US is attempting to cap the Indian arsenal and thwart research on fast breeders based on the large scale utilisation of thorium. Now with the new initiative on the use of plutonium and the encouragement of fast breeders, there is an urgent need for a complete rethink on India8217;s part. It should now make a bid to become a member of a new club of fast breeder developers and plutonium users. The US should enable India with its ongoing breeder reactor research. The breeder reactor, instead of being a matter of concern for India on the ground that it may be thwarted, should become a down payment to join the new club.

What happens if India insists on ploughing a lonely furrow? It would be kept out in an era when the world will be generating nuclear energy on a massive scale. It would also be soon overtaken in the development of fast breeder and even thorium use. Instead of being a leader in breeder technology, it may find itself at the tail end of it.

The present development approximates the initial period of globalisation. When India started economic liberalisation, there were many who warned that it would ruin India8217;s economic autonomy and slow down growth. They were proved wrong. Now a globalisation of nuclear energy is about to take place. Once again, the faint-hearted are afraid of competition. Just as Indian entrepreneurship overcame the conservative mindset, our younger scientists will be able to take on the competition. If obscurantist political and bureaucratic hurdles 8212; including those from the scientific bureaucracy 8212; stand in the way of our young scientists competing in a globalised environment from within India, they are likely to prove their worth in the scientific establishments of the US and elsewhere. Is this what we want?

What has brought about this radical change with respect to nuclear energy is the bold political initiative of President Bush to overcome all opposition from arms-controllers and anti-nuclear energy lobbyists. He has also made it into a global cooperative endeavour. These are not the policies traditionally associated with past US administrations. Therefore it will not be correct to extrapolate from past US policies and conclude that the country is hostile to India8217;s nuclear programme. No doubt there is still a residual obsession on non-proliferation and arms control within the US administration, among US legislators and the media. It will take some time for the new US initiative to impact US thinking, as it will, Indian thinking. However, the Bush initiative has international dimensions which will not be easy to reverse and, therefore, is likely to prevail beyond his presidency. This initiative is very much in tune with global trends and is likely to consolidate the new global nuclear energy order for the foreseeable future. In 1968, because India had not conducted a nuclear test, this country was excluded from being a member of the nuclear club. Now, if India does not get into the re-formed nuclear club of states that can trade in plutonium, it would find itself in a similar isolationist position.

The issue is not one for scientists alone to deal with. A lot of hasty and unfortunate comments have been made by people in high positions, even before the process of negotiation started. An assessment of the likely international developments 8212; including the scope for enhancing ties between India and US 8212; is not within the domain of scientists. Let not the excessive concern about possible external intervention in its nuclear programmes, derail India8217;s bid to emancipate its nuclear programme in a changed world.