Bihar spells Congress8217; doom

Since November the existing vote banks in Bihar had begun to loosen, and the attacks on the Congress by Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav were ample proof of their nervousness. The traditional Congress worker had once again started to strut around in his starched kurta pajama and waistcoat. The Tilak Bhawans in the districts, which have been the headquarters of the Congress since Mahatma Gandhi got them built, were whitewashedagain and the flag unfurled on January 26.And now the local Congress is facing a revolt. Many of its members felt strong enough to resign in protest. First they were told to oppose Laloo, and now they have to support him. They find their position untenable.

The irony of it all is that the minorities 8212; whom the party did not want to antagonise by being seen to be voting with the BJP in favour of President8217;s rule 8212; are less likely to come to the Congress now in Bihar and UP, as the party will have less support from other communities. Muslims will not waste their votes. Bihar will also influence UP. Those who feel they will drive a wedge between Mulayam and Laloo are living in a dream world.

The Congress was trying to forge a third front in Bihar with the likes of Ram Vilas Paswan. It had hoped to form a winning combination in many constituencies with the upper castes particularly the Bhumihars disillusioned with the BJP, with some OBCs such as the Kushwahas deserting the Samata Party, the Pasis whosesupport Paswan commands, and Muslims. But after the Congress8217; support to Laloo, Paswan, who had been hobnobbing with the Congress 8212; he attended Sonia Gandhi8217;s Iftaar party and she his 8212; will have little option but to go with Samata.

Sonia Gandhi also needs to worry about the Dalit factor. The party decision has given grist to the BJP propaganda mill that the Congress under Sonia Gandhi is concerned enough to sack its own chief minister when three Australians Christians are burnt alive but rescue the chief minister in Bihar when 22 Dalits are killed.

I am not one of those who believe that the Jehanabad massacres called for the imposition of President8217;s rule in Bihar. By that token half the states in the country should attract the provisions of Article 356. What about the murders in Delhi, the kidnappings for extortion in Maharashtra and the zones liberated by the PWG in Andhra Pradesh where the government8217;s writ does not run? The examples are only illustrative.

But having taken a political positionthat Rabri had lost her moral right to rule, the Congress should have insisted publicly that it would vote against President8217;s rule only if the chief minister was changed. It had the moral credentials to make that demand for the sake of accountability, having sacrificed its own chief minister in Orissa. And if Laloo did not agree, the party had the option of abstaining in the Lok Sabha vote.

The minorities would have understood such a position. They can grasp what weakens the BJP and what does not. The Congress can take on the BJP only when it gains in strength and not otherwise.

In any case, the basis of a decision by a party like the Congress can surely not be a mindless reaction to the BJP. That is not countering communalism. That is the surest way of getting cornered and that is precisely what has happened. In this case, it was the Congress which struck the first blow against Rabri by calling for her exit following the Jehanabad killings. The BJP government moved only after that. The fear ofgetting clubbed with the BJP seems to immobilise many Congressmen, making discourse very difficult. Even those who had misgivings about going with Laloo did not express themselves openly in the CWC.

The greater the setback to the Congress in Bihar and UP, which gave the BJP and its allies about 100 Lok Sabha seats in 1998, the smaller the chance of the party making it on its own in the next elections. It will have to ally with regional players, which suits the third force. The Congress does not add up to much in UP and Bihar and to make sure that it remains dependent on them, Laloo and Mulayam can be expected to drive an extremely hard bargain with the Congress in the event of an alliance.

Sonia Gandhi will have to decide whether she is playing for the long-term stake of a rejuvenated Congress coming to power on its own, or to lead acoalition arrangement with others. Her long-term aims will determine her short-run decisions. In the case of Bihar the party has fallen between two stools. It was not evenable to bargain with Laloo on a favourable electoral arrangement in return for its support, even though the RJD leader met Arjun Singh to seek the party8217;s support.

Bihar may turn out to be a costly mistake for the Congress.