Big deal?

The BJP8217;s position on the nuclear deal seems to be changing 8212;for the better 8212; reaction by slow reaction. If it all holds up and the BJP takes an official position that government assurance on nuclear strategic matters are the most vital question, there will be a remarkable transformation in the details and the quality of public debate on the issue. But, and this is the crucial point to recognise, given certain political realities, it would be over-optimistic to bet on any radical change in outcomes. Politics has been so divided over so many issues, the Congress-BJP, the Congress-Left and the BJP-Left dynamics have such sharp irreconcilable features, that the two main national parties coming closer on the nuclear deal may not lead to any change on the policy ground. More so when Narendra Modi is aiming to be re-elected in Gujarat. Modi lends politics an edge that those who oppose his party always give priority to. Nuclear deal politics in Delhi can8217;t start reworking itself when Gujarat is hosting a charged electoral battle.

This doesn8217;t mean, however, that the BJP8217;s seeming reworking of its nuclear deal position has no immediate, broader political implication. So far the deal has been pilloried by its many critics for not representing parliamentary 8216;majority8217;. The argument has been that never mind the executive8217;s right to enter into such deals without formal legislative assent, the fact that a majority of MPs are against it implied a moral barrier the government could ignore at grave peril. Well, if the BJP gives a clear, new message on the deal, that argument vapourises. There will be clear parliamentary 8216;majority8217; for the deal now. For reasons we mentioned earlier, those enthusiastic about the deal should not make the mistake of reading too much into this 8216;majority8217; in terms of policy movement. But definitely it is possible to read something into this from the point of view of general political mood.

That reading is this: whenever the next government is formed and whoever forms it will have a fairly clear direction from this Parliament that the political class in general is not in favour of junking the deal. If both national parties want the deal to go through, that8217;s the only conclusion possible.