All eyes on Maya

If Mayawati is not apologetic about stabbing former partners in the back, it is because she is convinced that they need her more than she needs them. Despite past acrimony, today both the Congress and BJP are hoping that Mayawati will invite them once again into her parlour. Perhaps the only thing that can be stated with fair certainty is that there is little likelihood of a BSP-SP partnership, after the stormy parting of ways with that party in 1995.

The Congress hopes for a political scenario where the BSP is only slightly short of a majority, so that it can fill the modest gap. The quid pro quo would be BSP8217;s continued support to the UPA. Without the BSP, the UPA government would be skating on thin ice. A section of the Congress also believes that a tie-up with the BSP in UP would pave the way for a national alliance in the next general election, which could lead to a revival in its political fortunes. But a pre-poll partnership with the BSP could well turn out to be a mixed blessing. Some Congress members fear that in states like MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where the BSP8217;s vote share has steadily increased, a partnership could see a repeat of UP, with the BSP slowly appropriating the Congress support base.

Mayawati8217;s loyal votebank of dalits is eyed covetously by all parties. She has often asserted indignantly that she has been cheated in her past pre-election tie-ups and that while BSP votes were transferred to the ally, the votes of the partners did not come BSP8217;s way. While some political analysts may agree with this formulation, in fact it is the reverse that may be true. In 1993, the BSP had a pre-poll alliance with the SP and both parties together succeeded in styming the BJP 8212; then riding the crest of the Hindutva wave 8212; from getting an absolute majority. The BSP, still a fledgling outfit, went on to get a respectable 69 seats, compared to SP8217;s 109. She tied up with the Congress in the 1996 assembly election and forced it to eat humble pie. She allotted just a mere one-third of the seats to the grand old party. The Congress strike rate may have been slightly better than that of the BSP that year, but climbing on the Congress8217;s shoulders, Mayawati gained acceptability in sections where earlier she was viewed as a maverick. She stole the remains of the Congress dalit vote bank from under the party8217;s nose.

If the Congress is hoping the BSP crosses the 150-mark, the BJP fervently desires that the BSP tally does not go beyond 120 because then Mayawati will per force have to seek a formal alliance with the saffron party. Alliances between the BJP and BSP have always been uneasy. The BJP has backed Mayawati twice in her bid to become UP8217;s CM but ditched her soon after. The BJP claims that once Mayawati is in the saddle, she acts like a dictator. Mayawati, in turn, accuses the BJP of conspiring against her, by secretly hobnobbing with arch rival Mulayam Singh Yadav or engineering defections from her party or registering false cases against her, as in the Taj corridor scam.

All debate as to whom Mayawati will pick at her political swayamvar rests of course on the assumption that at best she cannot win no more than 150 seats on her own. Behenji herself believes otherwise. And, given the dismal record of pollsters, she could well be right.