Adapt or go hungry 8212; Asia8217;s choices

Despite massive migration to the cities, the number of people living in the Asian countryside today stands at two billion 8211; more than at any other time in history. This rural population, many of its people impoverished, is projected to grow by 300 million by 2020. In South Asia alone, 500 million rural people already live on less than 60 pence a day, while 800 million children under the age of four aremalnourished.

One of the report8217;s authors, Peter Hazell of the International Food Policy Research Institute said: 8220;We expect to see increasing discontent about the growing inequalities in life, and in some cases a growing danger of social conflict and violence over the use of the remaining resources, especially in South Asia.8221; According to Hazell, aid agencies and national governments were deluding themselves if they thought the food problem had been solved and that agriculture was a sunset industry8217;.

Hazell also expressed alarm at the fact that investment in rural areas was being slashed 8212; especially after the Asian currency crisis of last year, and agricultural output was slowing down.

Presenting the report, Rural Asia: Beyond the Green Revolution, Hazell said: 8220;If successfully adopted, biotechnology could make an extremely important addition to agricultural production. Indeed it could be the only way of ensuring sufficient food for the next century.8221;

Norman Borlaug, a Nobel laureate 8212; one ofthe architects of the Sixties8217; green revolution which saw the introduction of more productive seed strains boosted by fertilisers in the Third World 8212; said environmental groups working in opposition to the use of chemicals and biotechnology were misguided.

8220;The world8217;s population is 6 billion, and there are already 800 million of us facing severe hunger,8221; he said. 8220;If you used the farming techniques of the 1930s, you wouldn8217;t be able to feed more than 2 billion people. You would have to use at least double the amount of land already being used for agriculture 8212; land which, thanks to technology, is still preserved today for forestry, wildlife and flood control.8221; The International Rice Research Institute, based south of Manila, is at the forefront of efforts to develop a strain of highly productive and pest-resistant super rice8217;, using genetic material from some of the world8217;s 80,000 rice species. Scientists say this could increase agricultural yields from two tonnes at present to six tonnes an acre.Fernando Bernardo, deputy director for international services, said: 8220;The only way we will be able to feed a growing population is through research. This is a race against time.8221;

What is genetic modification?

DNA is the code of life: an 8220;alphabet8221; of four acids common to every living creature. If DNA is the alphabet, genes are the phrases and sentences. A gene is a string of code that tells the cells to make the proteins and behave in a certain way that adds up to a characteristic which can be passed on to the next generation. Modern wheats, fruits and vegetables are unlike their progenitors because generations of farmers have selected the genes for bigness, or juiciness, or sweetness or high protein, and so on.

The discovery of how DNA works in 1953 created a new world: genes can now be selected in one plant or animal, and then transferred and switched on in another. But the big money is in crops proof against herbicide 8212; so that one spraying kills off all the competition 8212; or cropswith their own built-in insect resistance. But these are the crops which worry environmentalists: how will they affect the natural life around them? And what will food from such plants do to humans when they become a part of the standard diet? GM is a hot topic precisely because nobody can throw much convincing light on these questions.