A legitimacy deficit

The elections that are going to be held in Iraq on January 30 are a deeply flawed exercise. While the United States is trumpeting these elec...

The elections that are going to be held in Iraq on January 30 are a deeply flawed exercise. While the United States is trumpeting these elections as the first free and fair elections in Iraq, the truth is far more complicated. There is the obvious question whether elections held under the auspices of a power that many consider to be an occupying power, can be free and fair. The daily violence in cities like Baghdad has been enough to scare away most candidates from campaigning or even lending their names to the process. Cities like Fallujah have been razed to the ground. Even the interim president, Iyad Allawi, has conceded that it will be simply too dangerous for many people to vote. But most significantly, important groups are boycotting the elections. The Sunnis had already expressed their reservations about the process, and the Shia faction led by Moqtada al-Sadr is also boycotting the election. A government might be elected as a result of this election, but it would be very difficult to argue that this government will be the legitimate representative of the Iraqi people.

There is a particular irony in the American invocation of democracy in Iraq. Most opinion polls suggest that an overwhelming number of Iraqis want the foreign troops to leave. But these voices will not be represented in the election. It has been argued, with some justification, that the election is being subverted by the forces of violence, who have a stake in the failure of these elections. But, it can equally be argued that the administration in Iraq did not do enough to make these elections credible. It appears that the US is keen to declare Iraq a success. The elections are more about claiming a formal victory than they are about creating a credible future for Iraq.

It could also be argued that, whatever one8217;s views of the original invasion of Iraq, all parties should make the most of these elections. They are a fait accompli. Even though they are flawed, they are one interim step in restoring Iraq to the Iraqis. This is the best that can be said of these elections. But whether the best is good enough remains an open question. It will depend a great deal upon whether the administration that is elected will be allowed to function independently of American tutelage. It will also depend on its ability to lay out a convincing roadmap for a more inclusive Iraq. But the current signs are that the administration elected through these elections will not be able to do either. So these elections will, it appears, exacerbate Iraq8217;s legitimacy predicament, not solve it.