India can prevent 200,000 Covid-19 deaths by December, suggest new computer modelling of pandemic

Even to reach the death count of 2.91 lakh, close to 2,500 deaths would have to happen every day in the 94 days to December 1

COVID-19 cases decrease in Ahmedabad city, Gujarat covid cases

Ahmedabad added 185 new cases with the rural limits also reporting a Covid-19 fatality on Tuesday (Representational)

A new computer modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic in India shows that while the disease will continue to pose a major public health threat, it may be possible to prevent more than 200,000 deaths by December 1, 2020, with more widespread adoption of masks and data-driven physical distancing measures in the most affected states.

The modelling, produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, suggests that India’s death count could go up to 2.9 lakh (291,145) by the start of December. India has seen more than 62,500 coronavirus deaths till now. This scenario assumes that people would continue to follow social distancing, the usage of face masks would be near-universal (95 per cent), and that states would re-impose lockdowns if the daily death rate exceeded 8 per million. This threshold is based on when governments worldwide have typically imposed lockdowns to stop Covid19 transmission.

But if the lockdown restrictions are removed and face-mask usage remains at current levels, then the death count could go much higher, almost till 4.92 lakh, by December 1.

However, even to reach the death count of 2.91 lakh, close to 2,500 deaths would have to happen every day in the 94 days to December 1. India is currently recording just over 1,000 deaths every day, some days much less. Only 45 deaths have happened per million population, which is way below the current world average of 108. Similarly, the case fatality ratio, calculated as deaths out of the total number of infections, is down to 1.81 per cent, again much below the world average of 3.3 per cent.

Long-period projections have a lot of uncertainty built-in, especially in situations that are continuously evolving. Some dire predictions about the number of infections and deaths in India at the start of the outbreak have not turned out to be very accurate.

However, India does continue to be one of the most active countries of the epidemic right now.

“India’s epidemic is far from over, as a large proportion of the population is still susceptible,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray told The Indian Express on Saturday morning. “In fact, our modelling shows there is a wide range of potential outcomes, depending on the actions that governments and individuals take today, tomorrow, and into the near future. Mask-wearing and social distancing are crucial to mitigate the spread of the virus.”

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“There is an opportunity to further limit the toll of COVID-19 in India and highlights the critical need for people to comply with face mask use, social distancing, and other COVID-19 prevention guidelines as advised by public health authorities,” Dr Murray said.

Forecasts show opportunity to prevent more than 200,000 deaths by December 1.

India’s response to COVID-19 has produced some significant successes that highlight the opportunity to limit the pandemic’s toll in the country. In some urban areas, including Delhi, containment measures that include intensive contact tracing, widespread testing, mask-wearing, and social distancing mandates have helped reduce the spread of the virus. In addition, COVID-19 testing in India has scaled up rapidly.

“India is at a tipping point,” Murray said. “If hospitals in those states are unable to accommodate everyone needing COVID-19 care, the result will be more deaths and greater long-term harm to state and local economies.”

IHME’s projections for India are based on an epidemiological model that includes data on cases, deaths, and antibody prevalence, as well as state-specific COVID-19 testing rates, mobility, social distancing mandates, mask use, population density and age structure, and pneumonia seasonality, which shows a strong correlation with the trajectory of COVID-19.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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