The President of Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, was one of seven leaders from India’s neighbourhood who attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in at Rashtrapati Bhavan on Sunday evening (June 9). Muizzu’s presence was significant, given the way he has positioned himself politically vis à vis India, and the crucial strategic aspect to the India-Maldives relationship. The ‘India Out’ candidate Muizzu came to power on November 17 last year on an ‘India Out’ plank. The India Out campaign had begun in 2020 as the Maldives opposition’s protest against then President Ibrahim Solih’s policies that were perceived to be friendly towards New Delhi, but had soon turned into a movement against India’s alleged military presence in the archipelago, which both the Solih government and India denied. During his presidential campaign, Muizzu repeatedly vowed to send back “foreign soldiers”. Within hours of being sworn in, he demanded the withdrawal of all Indian military personnel from Maldives. Consequently, the final batch of Indian soldiers — who were stationed in the Maldives to operate and maintain two helicopters and three Dornier aircraft India had previously gifted to the country — were replaced by civilians in May. Muizzu’s pro-China tilt Like his mentor, former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, under whose rule (2013-18) the India-Maldives relationship deteriorated severely, Muizzu has openly aligned his country with China, India’s geopolitical rival in the Indian Ocean. In January, Muizzu broke with a Maldivian tradition to choose Beijing over New Delhi for his first foreign visit as President. He met President Xi Jinping, and signed 20 agreements covering areas ranging from tourism to social housing and e-commerce. In March, Malé signed an agreement with Beijing to obtain free “non-lethal” military equipment and training from China — the first ever military deal between the two countries. The Chinese influence in the Maldives has increased steadily over the past couple of decades. The island nation is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has led to an influx of Chinese money and a strengthening of the relationship between the two countries — at the expense of India. Muizzu’s presidency and the anti-India sentiment fanned by sections of the Maldivian political class is a culmination of this process. A historical relationship For India, the Maldives is a crucial ally, important to secure its maritime periphery and to keep an eye on the larger Indian Ocean region where China is making aggressive moves. The archipelago lies barely 70 nautical miles (130 km) from Lakshadweep’s Minicoy Island, and some 300 nautical miles (560 km) from India’s west coast. Several important commercial sea lanes run through the islands. Regardless of Muizzu’s pro-China, anti-India posturing, the Maldives cannot simply “let go” of India. It is heavily dependent on Indian imports in almost all important sectors, from food to life-saving medicines, and aircraft used in search and rescue missions. India has rushed to the Maldives’ aid in many crises — from being the first to send in help after the 2004 tsunami to airlifting drinking water to the country after a desalination plant broke down in 2014. During the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent medicines, masks, gloves, PPE kits, vaccines, and other aid. The Indian Army played a crucial role in thwarting an attempted coup in Malé in 1988. “Across party lines in the Maldives, they don’t criticise this operation. They will mention other issues that they have with India, but not this,” Maldives expert Dr Gulbin Sultana had told The Indian Express in 2021. Chance of a fresh start At a time when relations between India and the Maldives are at a low, Muizzu’s visit sends an encouraging signal. Some groundwork for a reset in the relationship has been done over the past couple of months. In April, India approved the highest-ever export quotas for essential commodities — eggs, potatoes, onions, sugar, rice, wheat flour and pulses, river sand and stone aggregates — to Maldives for 2024-25 under a unique bilateral mechanism that has been in effect since 1981. On May 9, Maldives Foreign Minister Moosa Zameer met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in New Delhi — the first high-level visit since Muizzu came to power. The two leaders had “extensive discussions” on “bilateral relationship” and “regional security issues”. After a meeting with Muizzu on Monday, Jaishankar, on X, said, “Look forward to India and Maldives working together closely”.
