What a new proposed 15% cap on foreign admissions in the US could mean for Indian students

What is the 15% cap proposal?

The US government has circulated a draft proposal among nine leading universities that receive large federal research grants. Additionally, it directs universities to conduct admissions and financial aid decisions without considering race or gender when admitting students and hiring faculty or staff.

Texas-based immigration attorney Chand Parvathaneni told The Indian Express, “Right now, it looks like this proposal has just been sent to nine universities. They’re proposing that if you accept these terms, you’ll get preference in terms of funds, research funds, research grants, and federal grants.” The larger idea, he said, “is not just about international students.” It revises how universities consider diversity and equity in admissions, moving away from affirmative action practices that gave weight to underrepresented groups.

Which universities received the proposal?

Nine universities have reportedly received the draft compact: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), University of Pennsylvania, University of Arizona (UA), Brown University, Dartmouth College, University of Southern California (USC), University of Texas (UT), University of Virginia(UVA) and Vanderbilt University.

These are among the country’s most research-intensive institutions, and all are heavily reliant on federal research and innovation grants. Parvathaneni said, “Normally, the top universities get a lot of the government funding. So they picked the ones already getting a large chunk of these funds.”

How much funding do these schools receive?

According to data from the US Department of Education and the National Science Foundation, these schools collectively receive several billion dollars annually in federal research support.

*MIT gets about 45% of its $4.8 billion budget from federal sources.

*Penn and Vanderbilt each draw roughly $1 billion–$1.3 billion (50–70% of their budgets) from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation (NSF), and Department of Defense (DoD).

*Brown and Dartmouth rely on 60–70% of federal funding, while UT, UVA, and UA get around 45–60%. USC’s share is about 55%.

Since the cap is not law but a conditional funding agreement, each university can independently decide whether to sign it, much like federal research compliance agreements. However, any rule tying these grants to a 15% international student cap could reshape their admissions process. “At this point in time, nobody has signed this agreement yet, but we don’t even know if the universities will sign it, because there’s a lot of pushback from professors. Some of them feel their academic independence might be lost,” Parvathaneni said.

Dartmouth President Sian Leah Beilock said in a recent statement, “You have often heard me say that higher education is not perfect and that we can do better. At the same time, we will never compromise our academic freedom and our ability to govern ourselves”.

On Saturday (October 11), MIT President Sally Kornbluth wrote an open letter to US Education Secretary Linda McMahon. “Fundamentally, the premise of the document is inconsistent with our core belief that scientific funding should be based on scientific merit alone. In our view, America’s leadership in science and innovation depends on independent thinking and open competition for excellence. In that free marketplace of ideas, the people of MIT gladly compete with the very best, without preferences. Therefore, with respect, we cannot support the proposed approach to addressing the issues facing higher education.”

As reported by the University of Texas student newspaper, The Daily Texan, the school was one of the few that reacted positively, saying, “The system will immediately review the compact”.

If a university signs the proposal, how will the cap work?

If a university agrees, it must allow the US Department of Justice (DOJ) to monitor its admissions. In practical terms, admissions offices would use I-20 visa issuance data (used to admit international students) to track nationality-based caps.

“When they intake foreign students, they have to issue the I-20 form,” Parvathaneni said. “So they’ll be able to figure out who’s from which country, and ensure they don’t give out any more admissions than allowed.” That means if a school reaches its 5% threshold for Indian students, further Indian applications, even if meritorious, might be deferred or rejected.

How could this affect Indian students?

For Indian students, who currently make up the largest international student group in the US (followed by the Chinese), the proposed cap could sharply restrict access to some of America’s most sought-after universities.

“These nine universities probably will be hurt, too,” said Parvathaneni. “A large chunk of their student population is international, and some of them are really big schools like MIT or Dartmouth. If they agree to this, they might lose out on a large number of international student applications.”

Why is the US government proposing this?

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) has previously expressed concerns about over-reliance on foreign students in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) research, particularly from a few countries, such as India and China. It also comes amid pushback from a section of US President Donald Trump’s supporters, who claim the H-1B visa (usually availed by STEM graduates to work in the US) is being exploited to hire foreign workers instead of American ones. Immigration has been a key hot-button issue in US politics of late.

At the same time, the proposal appears tied to the post-affirmative action push for “merit-based equality” in higher education funding, reframing how institutions balance diversity and federal oversight. Parvathaneni said it also had to do with prioritising equality, and that legal challenges may not arise immediately because the proposal is voluntary and not a federal mandate.