Not so random anymore: What Indians should know about changes in the US H-1B visa lottery system

Together, the two measures mark a shift in how the US selects foreign workers, giving preference to salary and seniority. They are expected to have far-reaching consequences for Indian students and professionals, who form the largest group of H-1B applicants each year.

What has changed in the H-1B lottery system?

The key change is that the H-1B lottery will no longer be purely random. Employers apply for and sponsor the H-1B visa for their overseas employees to work in the United States.

Until now, when applications exceeded the annual H-1B cap of 85,000 visas, every eligible registration had an equal chance of selection, regardless of salary or experience. From 2026, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will use a weighted lottery, where applications tied to higher wages receive more chances in the draw.

Texas-based immigration attorney Chand Parvathaneni noted that the change did not come via an executive order — a tool that US President Donald Trump has increasingly deployed in his second term. “It went through a proper federal rule-making process. They first published the proposal in September, gave the public time to comment, reviewed those comments, and then finalised the rule,” he said.

Because the final rule was published with a notice period, Parvathaneni said, it will only take effect from February 27, 2026.

How will the new wage-weighted lottery work in practice?

The new system relies on the four wage levels set by the US Department of Labor for when employers file H-1B petitions. These wage levels are determined by occupation, location, and experience.

Under the new lottery:

Wage Level 1 (entry-level): 1 chance in the lottery

Wage Level 2: 2 chances

Wage Level 3: 3 chances

Wage Level 4 (highest): 4 chances

“It is still a lottery,” Parvathaneni said, “but not a random lottery. It is weighted towards the wage level. Somebody who gets a higher wage has more chances and a higher probability of being selected.” Safeguards will also be instituted to prevent employers from artificially inflating wages to game the system.

Who stands to benefit from this change?

The rule is designed to benefit more experienced and higher-paid professionals.

Parvathaneni stated that the government’s logic is straightforward: higher salaries are seen as a proxy for higher skill. “The general view is that somebody who is more experienced obviously has more skills and commands more salary,” he said. “The government wants to give that person more preference.”

Because Indian applicants already comprise a large share of senior IT, engineering and consulting roles, the change does not disadvantage Indians as a nationality. Instead, it shifts the advantage within the applicant pool. “It won’t shift from one country to another,” Parvathaneni said. “It will shift from junior-level people to more senior-level people.”

Who is likely to lose out?

Entry-level applicants, including fresh graduates and many international students, are expected to face a disadvantage. Speaking to The Indian Express, Virginia-based immigration attorney Rajiv Khanna said, “One obvious impact of the new H-1B methodology is that the chances for entry-level people have reduced drastically.”

Khanna said the change is particularly damaging for students who took on large educational loans. “There are students here with hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans, anticipating that they’ll be able to get a job,” he said. “It appears very unlikely now.”

At first glance, lower-paid fields such as teaching, education, and some non-profit roles might appear vulnerable. However, Parvathaneni said the rule does not impose a fixed salary threshold. “They are not talking about a dollar figure,” he explained. “They are talking about wage levels within an occupation.”

For example, a wage level 4 teacher may earn far less than a wage level 4 software engineer, but both would still receive the highest weighting within their respective professions. “So it’s not that teachers will automatically be impacted,” Parvathaneni said. “In every occupation, they are looking for senior-level people.”

Where the real impact may be felt, Khanna said, is among entry-level hiring across sectors, especially at startups and small businesses. “An employer who wants to apply for an entry-level individual to get the visa may not be keen on spending hundreds or even thousands of dollars just to set up the lottery,” he said. “Large employers have no problem spending that money. It’s the smaller businesses, entrepreneurs and startups that will suffer.”

Will the number of H-1B filings fall because of this?

Yes. Khanna said the new system increases legal and compliance costs even at the registration stage. “Earlier, the lottery was just basic information,” he said. “Now we have to lay the groundwork for a future H-1B filing.” As a result, some employers may choose not to apply at all for entry-level candidates with low odds of selection.

How does the $100,000 H-1B fee fit into this change?

The wage-weighted lottery is separate from the $100,000 fee. Employers sponsoring workers from outside the US must pay the fee, but students already in the US transitioning from the F-1 visa to H-1B are exempt.
Together, both policy changes mean that while students in the US will avoid the fee, experienced professionals in India may benefit from being at higher wage levels.

What should Indian applicants do next year? 

Both lawyers say Indian students and professionals need to recalibrate expectations and plan far more deliberately. Parvathaneni advises applicants to focus on compliance, experience and have greater clarity about their career trajectory. “The government wants specialised people, and salary is being used as a proxy for that,” he said.

Khanna urges students, especially those considering expensive US degrees, to reassess the potential risk. He cautions that entry-level pathways have narrowed sharply and that policy shifts are being made without clear evidence of long-term economic benefit. “If you are coming purely for education, the US is still the best,” he said. “But if you are coming with the expectation of a career and a hospitable environment, this is not the time to assume things will work out.”

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