Explained Books: Why the paths to development vary from nation to nation

Why do some countries prosper and others don’t? Stefan Dercon's book is on the basis of his experience of studying the evolution of several key African and Asian economies over the past few decades. He makes three essential points.

Stefan Dercon; his new book

Title | Gambling on Development: Why Some Countries Win and Others Lose
Author: Stefan Dercon
Publisher: C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd
Pages: 360

Why do some countries prosper and others don’t? If we knew of a silver bullet that would guarantee a country’s development, millions could be lifted out of poverty, all nations would become rich, and good quality education and healthcare would prevail no matter where you lived on the planet. This is especially relevant for India as it embarks on a goal to become a “developed country” over the next 25 years.

In the past, several books have been written on this topic. These include David Landes’ Wealth And Poverty Of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich And Some So Poor (1998), and Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (2012) by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. So what new insight does Stefan Dercon provide?

A professor of economic policy and director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at the University of Oxford, Dercon has written this book on the basis of his experience of studying the evolution of several key African and Asian economies over the past few decades. He makes three essential points.

Must Read | India as a ‘developed’ country: where we are, and the challenges ahead, explained

His first contention is that while a lot of existing research has focussed on the specific winning blueprints of development, the fact is successful countries appear to have pursued a relatively diverse set of economic and other policies. For instance, China and India have had different strategies for development. In other words, “there is no one, cost-free path to development.”

Two, a better understanding is needed of why some countries implemented sensible economic and other policies, while others never did, despite often claiming they would. “Understanding why the rhetoric was followed by action in some places and not in others is at the centre of understanding how development works,” writes Dercon.

Three — and this is where Dercon shares with readers his core idea — successful growth and development require the presence of a “development bargain”, that is, an underlying commitment to growth and development by members of a country’s elite (the people within the fabric of society, the economy and politics who make decisions or can disproportionately influence them).

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The obvious question is: What will ensure that such a bargain takes place? For this, Dercon says, three conditions must be met.

First, durable political and economic deals among the elite: for development, long periods of peace and stability are essential. Second, “Success requires finding a balance between what the state should do and what it can do — and local circumstances will dictate what this is.” In other words, a mature, sensible state. Third, says Dercon, is the ability to learn from mistakes and course-correct.

Explained Books appears every Saturday. It summarises the core argument of an important work of non-fiction.

Udit Misra

Udit Misra is Senior Associate Editor at The Indian Express. Misra has reported on the Indian economy and policy landscape for the past two decades. He holds a Master’s degree in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics and is a Chevening South Asia Journalism Fellow from the University of Westminster. Misra is known for explanatory journalism and is a trusted voice among readers not just for simplifying complex economic concepts but also making sense of economic news both in India and abroad. Professional Focus He writes three regular columns for the publication. ExplainSpeaking: A weekly explanatory column that answers the most important questions surrounding the economic and policy developments. GDP (Graphs, Data, Perspectives): Another weekly column that uses interesting charts and data to provide perspective on an issue dominating the news during the week. Book, Line & Thinker: A fortnightly column that for reviewing books, both new and old. Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) His recent work focuses heavily on the weakening Indian Rupee, the global impact of U.S. economic policy under Donald Trump, and long-term domestic growth projections: Currency and Macroeconomics: "GDP: Anatomy of rupee weakness against the dollar" (Dec 19, 2025) — Investigating why the Rupee remains weak despite India's status as a fast-growing economy. "GDP: Amid the rupee's fall, how investors are shunning the Indian economy" (Dec 5, 2025). "Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2025: How the winners explained economic growth" (Oct 13, 2025). Global Geopolitics and Trade: "Has the US already lost to China? Trump's policies and the shifting global order" (Dec 8, 2025). "The Great Sanctions Hack: Why economic sanctions don't work the way we expect" (Nov 23, 2025) — Based on former RBI Governor Urjit Patel's new book. "ExplainSpeaking: How Trump's tariffs have run into an affordability crisis" (Nov 20, 2025). Domestic Policy and Data: "GDP: New labour codes and opportunity for India's weakest states" (Nov 28, 2025). "ExplainSpeaking | Piyush Goyal says India will be a $30 trillion economy in 25 years: Decoding the projections" (Oct 30, 2025) — A critical look at the feasibility of high-growth targets. "GDP: Examining latest GST collections, and where different states stand" (Nov 7, 2025). International Economic Comparisons: "GDP: What ails Germany, world's third-largest economy, and how it could grow" (Nov 14, 2025). "On the loss of Europe's competitive edge" (Oct 17, 2025). Signature Style Udit Misra is known his calm, data-driven, explanation-first economics journalism. He avoids ideological posturing, and writes with the aim of raising the standard of public discourse by providing readers with clarity and understanding of the ground realities. You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @ieuditmisra ... Read More