What Vladimir Putin’s visit to Saudi and UAE signals

Welcomed in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi

The President received a high-octane welcome in the UAE, with a motorcade and full cavalry escort to the presidential palace where there was a 21-gun salute and the Emirati national air show team drew a Russian flag with coloured fumes in the sky.

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, ruler of the UAE, called Putin his “dear friend”, and said he was happy to meet him again. The President reciprocated the sentiment: “Our relations, largely due to your position, have reached an unprecedentedly high level,” he told Sheikh Mohammed.

In Saudi Arabia, Putin had a striking live exchange with Mohammed bin Salman, telling the Crown Prince that he had flown down after MBS’ plan to visit Russia had to be changed at the last minute.

“We awaited you in Moscow,” Putin told MBS with a smile. “I know that events forced a correction to those plans but as I have already said nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relations. “But,” he added, “the next meeting should be in Moscow.” MBS replied through a Russian translator that he was of course ready to do that. “Then we are agreed,” Putin said.

Saudi and Russia together control one-fifth of the world’s oil that is pumped each day. High prices of oil have sustained Russia’s war in Ukraine, and further strengthened the Saudi economy.

Show of strength in Russia…

The high-profile visits are the President’s show of strength ahead of elections in his country. Russian lawmakers — members of the Federation Council, the upper house of Parliament — have set March 17 as the date for the election of the President.

Putin, who is 71 and has been in power continuously since the turn of the millennium, is eligible to seek two more six-year terms after his current term expires next year. This potentially allows him to remain in power until 2036.

…And signals for the world

More importantly, Putin, whom the West has sanctioned heavily, is looking for global partners to signal that he is not isolated.

Over the last year, MBS and MBZ (as Sheikh Mohamed is known), both leaders of rich and influential countries, have projected themselves as bridge-builders in a polarised world.

In August, the Saudis hosted a meeting on the Russia-Ukraine war, which was attended by India’s National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, his American counterpart Jake Sullivan, and China’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui.

The UAE is seen as the main international hub for Russian businesses, and a key route for the country to circumvent Western sanctions. Putin said the turnover of goods between Russia and the UAE rose 68% in 2022, and “I believe this year [the growth] will be even greater.”

Importantly, both countries are also key partners of the United States in the region.

In an article published on December 7 in The Intelligence Operative, the house journal of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Putin’s spy chief Sergei Naryshkin predicted that the US support for Ukraine would turn the conflict into a “second Vietnam”, a “black hole absorbing more and more resources and people”.

The West has given Ukraine more than $246 billion in aid and weapons so far. But on Wednesday, Republicans in Congress blocked a $111 billion emergency spending bill that would give about $50 billion in security assistance to Kyiv, and more for economic and humanitarian aid.

They ignored appeals by President Joe Biden, who cautioned that “If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there”, and “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops.”