Russia or Ukraine: Who does Crimea belong to?

His statement came shortly after US President Donald Trump asserted that Ukraine should give up hopes of getting back Crimea and entry into NATO.

Crimea, the contested peninsular region of southern Ukraine, has long changed hands between empires. Since the 1990s, Russians and Ukrainians have fought for control over the land. It remains at the heart of the conflict between the two nations even today. Who does Crimea belong to? We trace the history of Crimea to understand its current status.

The origins of Crimea

The Crimean Peninsula, bordered by the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, has long been coveted for its fertile land and strategic ports. Once known as Tauris or Taurida under the ancient Greeks, it later came under Roman rule, Genoese traders, and briefly the Kievan Rus (the medieval state, which is believed to be a precursor to modern-day Russia, Ukraine and Belarus).

In the 13th century, it became part of the Mongol Golden Horde, evolving into the Crimean Khanate, dominated by Crimean Tatars, the Islamic community now regarded as the indigenous population of Crimea. The name ‘Crimea’ even comes from the Tatar word “krym”, which means “rock fortress”.

A timeline of rulers in Crimea

1475: The Ottoman Empire took over the khanate, while Crimean Tatars continued to thrive in the region.

1774: Ottomans lost to Russia’s Catherine the Great. Crimea was declared independent but remained under Russian influence.

1783: Crimea was incorporated into the Russian Empire. During this time, several Crimean Tatars are reported to have left for the Ottoman lands.

The territory witnessed several battles, including the 1853-86 Crimean War, between Russia and Britain and France. In the 20th century, Crimean Tartars established their own Parliament, which was unacceptable to the Bolsheviks, who had just come to power under Vladimir Lenin.

1918: Bolsheviks defeated the Tartars, establishing the short-lived Taurida Soviet Socialist Republic, named after its Greek origins. Ukrainian forces, backed by the Germans, drove the Bolsheviks out.

1921: The Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) was established within the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR), the largest member state of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

1941-44: Nazi Germany occupied Crimea till the USSR wrested back control. Crimea was downgraded to an ‘oblast’. Soviet Union leader Joseph Stalin ordered the deportation of Crimean Tatars, accusing them of collaborating with the Nazis. According to most accounts, over 200,000 Crimean Tatars were rounded up and sent to Central Asia — most of them settled in Uzbekistan. The Ukrainian government has claimed that over 46 per cent of the deportees died during the exile.

1954: Nikita Khrushchev, Stalin’s successor, transferred control of Crimea from the RSFSR to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR). According to a 2003 paper titled ‘The Crimea Conundrum’ by researcher Doris Wydra, at this time, 90 per cent of the Crimean population was already Russian.

1991: Ukraine became an independent country. Crimea was accorded an autonomous status after a referendum. This also allowed the return of Crimean Tatars to the peninsula, an exercise that began around 1987. According to Multilingualism in Post-Soviet Countries, Crimean Tatars made up 12 per cent of Crimea’s population in 2001, and Russians and Ukrainians accounted for 58% and 24%, respectively.

Crimea remained part of Ukraine till 2014, when Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, annexed it.

The 2014 annexation of Crimea: How and why

In 2013, massive protests, later called the Euromaidan Revolution, gripped Ukraine. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered at a central square in Kyiv to protest against the Russia-backed President, Viktor Yanukovych, who had refused to sign an agreement that would have strengthened Ukraine’s ties and trade with the European Union. In February 2014, Yanukovych fled the country, prompting the Ukrainian Parliament to appoint an acting President in his place.

In view of its declining influence in the Ukrainian government, Russia moved to occupy Crimea. According to reports, Russia increased its military presence in the peninsula in February, taking control of key facilities, including the Crimean Parliament. The Russian-backed Parliament held a referendum, claiming that 97 per cent of the voters had opted to join Russia. Days later, Putin, claiming to act on the referendum results, signed an agreement to accede Crimea to Russia.

The Kremlin has justified the annexation of Crimea, stating that it was righting a “historical wrong” — the 1954 transfer of Crimea to Ukraine. Russia has also cited historical and cultural ties with the region — a majority of the Crimean population is Russian-speaking. Assistant Professor at the London School of Economics, Eleanor Knott, however, writes in her book, Kin Majorities, that her fieldwork between 2012-13 showed that few in Crimea identified as “pro-Russian nationalists”. While many identified themselves as ethnically Russian, they had few political or cultural ties to Russia. The dominant identity in the region was “Crimean”, while youngsters identified themselves as Ukrainian citizens.

The annexation was widely condemned by international governments, including those of the US, the EU and United Nations members. Several critics accused Russia of fabricating the referendum results.

Putin warned the West against getting involved, brandishing Russia’s nuclear capabilities. He threatened an all-out war if Ukraine were to take back the peninsula by force.

The discourse on Crimea today

A majority of the international community, including a 2014 UN General Assembly resolution, recognises Crimea as an integral part of Ukraine.

The US has historically recognised Crimea as part of Ukraine. However, Trump has increasingly abandoned that view. In a post on Truth Social, a day before his scheduled meeting with Zelenskyy and other European leaders, Trump said, “Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”

Notably, the 2014 annexation came under Barack Obama’s presidency. He had refused to supply lethal aid to Ukraine at the time. In a speech on March 26, 2014, Obama had said, “The United States and NATO do not seek any conflict with Russia… Now is not the time for bluster. There are no easy answers, no military solution.”

In a 2023 interview with CNN, Obama clarified his stance, saying that at the time there was “some sympathy to the view that Russia was representing its interests” within Crimea, and that the Ukrainian Parliament, too, had “Russian sympathisers”. He added that he and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel had pooled European leaders together to impose sanctions against Russia to resist its further invasion of Donbas.

Trump’s statement came just days after he met Putin in Alaska, a meeting that ended without any agreement on ending the war in Ukraine. However, it signalled a shift in Trump’s stance. The US President, who had earlier warned Putin of “severe consequences” if he did not agree to a ceasefire, has said that a “peace agreement” was instead the “best way” to end the war.

Putting the onus on the embattled Ukrainian leader to reach a resolution, Trump stated, “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.”