How immigration has become the top issue in the 2024 US Presidential elections

The development highlights the growing tensions between Republicans and Democrats over immigration, especially with the 2024 Presidential elections looming. We take a look.

What is happening at the southern border of the US?

There has been a spike in the number of migrants entering the US through its Mexico border in recent years, especially during the presidency of Joe Biden. A Washington Post report said: “According to the latest report from DHS, US Customs and Border Protection released more than 2.3 million migrants into the country at the southern border under the Biden administration, allowing in the vast majority of migrant families and some adult groups.”

Meanwhile, more than 6 million migrants were taken into CBP custody during the same period. In November 2023 alone, there were nearly 250,000 illegal crossings along the southern border, and a majority of them were released into the country with pending claims for protection.

According to a 2023 report by The New York Times, there are now around 11 million undocumented immigrants inside the US, three times the number that lived here in 1990.

The influx of migrants has strained the resources of cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver — Democrat-run places where Republican governors of southern states have pushed these undocumented migrants to, The Economist reported. Thus, Democrat mayors of these cities have consistently requested more federal aid to shelter and accommodate the new arrivals.

But why has there been a surge of migration into the US?

The Republicans blame President Biden’s immigration policies for the rise in the number of migrants. During his 2020 campaign, Biden promised to undo Trump’s anti-immigrant approach and adopt a more humane stance.

According to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), since assuming office, Biden has eased the Trump-era crackdown on migrants, lifting the suspension of green card processing, halting construction of the US-Mexico border wall, accelerating the reunification of migrant families, cancelling safe third country agreements, etc. He has also introduced new “parole” policies, which allow certain migrants to enter legally for humanitarian reasons, and done away with the practice of detaining families since 2021.

While Biden’s critics argue that his policies have encouraged migration into the US, circumstances way out of his control have also played a major part.

The Economist noted that whenever there is a rise in demand for workers in the US labour market, the number of illegal immigrants goes up. This is why the number spiked during the initial years of the Trump administration, before dying down due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

“When travel became possible again in 2021, pent-up demand resulted in a surge of people across the southern border,” the report added.

Moreover, the increase in global migration has also contributed to the recent spike in illegal border crossings. The economic crisis in Venezuela has driven millions of people out of the country. Gang violence in Central America has pushed out many. Tens of thousands are now arriving in the Americas from countries like Russia (43,000 in the year to September 2023), India (42,000), and China (24,000) and trying to cross the border, The Economist reported.

Why has the US failed to tackle illegal immigration?

The aforementioned reasons, however, are not at the heart of the problem of mass undocumented migration into the US. It is a decades-old issue, which has persisted largely due to three main reasons: strict immigration laws, the failure of the US Congress to reform said laws, and an overburdened immigration court system.

Currently, legal immigration to the US is nearly impossible for most people, according to another report by The NYT.

David J Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, last year estimated that only around 3 per cent of those who tried to move permanently to the US were able to do so legally, the report added. “Legal immigration is less like waiting in line and more like winning the lottery: It happens, but it is so rare that it is irrational to expect it in any individual case,” he wrote. Consequently, most aspiring immigrants try to enter the US unlawfully.

The other reason behind the United States’ failure to deal with unlawful immigration is the sheer burden on its immigration courts. A recent report by The Economist stated that there are more than three million cases in these courts (as of November 2023), and it takes more than four years on average to get an initial asylum hearing. Experts suggest that to deal with this backlog, the US needs double the number of present judges, in addition to adding more interpreters, legal assistants and law clerks.

The NYT report noted that improved efficiency in the system would “decrease the incentive to submit frivolous asylum claims in order to reside legally in the United States while waiting for an application to be denied.”

Most importantly, the Congress has not been able to pass any laws to fix the United States’ broken immigration system in years.

The last comprehensive legislation — addressing issues such as labour demands, the legal status of undocumented immigrants living in the US, border security, and interior enforcement — to pass in Congress was under President Ronald Reagan in 1986.

Congress’s inability to usher in significant immigration reform is largely due to political gridlock between Republicans and Democrats. A case in point is the border deal that is currently being negotiated in the Senate. Although the deal meant to address the issue of migrants entering through the southern border has been in the works for months, both parties have not been able to come to a consensus.

“Each party mistrusts the other’s motives. Republicans say they will not give more money to an administration they cannot trust to enforce immigration laws… Democrats look at Republican demands, such as that families coming into the country can be detained indefinitely, and conclude that negotiations are being set up to fail,” The Economist report said.

How can the issue of immigration affect the 2024 presidential race?

With Biden struggling to curtail the rising number of migrants crossing into the US through its southern border, Republicans have ramped up their attack on him. Recent polls show that immigration is fast emerging as the top issue in the 2024 polls.

This is at the heart of why the GOP is trying to impeach Mayorkas. They have also refused to sanction emergency funding for Ukraine unless the border deal is passed.

To make matters worse for Biden, his management of immigration and the southern border is his worst-rated issue, The Washington Post reported.

Notably, he has been under fire from both the Left and the Right. While the Right has accused him of not doing enough to curb the surge of migrants, the Left feels betrayed as President Biden has recently adopted some of Trump’s anti-immigration policies — last week, he said he would be willing to close the US-Mexico border if senators reach the border deal.

Donald Trump, all set to become the Republican presidential nominee, fares far better than Biden on immigration. Polls show that more than twice as many people trust Trump over Biden on the issue.

This is why, many experts believe that immigration can bring Trump back to the White House.