Donald Trump has been disqualified from two US states’ election ballots. Can he become President again?

Trump said he would file an objection against the recent decision, terming it “atrocious”. He has so far been the frontrunner for the 2024 Presidential polls, ranking higher than incumbent President Joe Biden on voter surveys. What could these disqualifications mean for his candidacy?

First, what is the insurrection charge against Trump?

The decision was related to Trump’s alleged role in the January 6, 2021 attacks on the US Capitol – the seat of the country’s government. Trump supporters were protesting the election victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden in 2020, claiming the polls were rigged. They rioted and entered the premises of government offices in Washington DC. At least five people died in the aftermath and some were injured.

According to Reuters, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows – the state’s top election official – said that Trump incited an insurrection when he spread false claims about voter fraud in the 2020 election. Issuing a call for his supporters to march on the Capitol was also seen as a part of this. “The U.S. Constitution does not tolerate an assault on the foundations of our government,” she wrote in her ruling.

The Colorado Supreme Court had said in its December 19 ruling that Trump was “disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution”. The court added that as a result, it would be a “wrongful act” to list him as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot”.

Section Three has never been invoked against a former President until now. It says that if any person previously elected to government offices took part in an insurrection or rebellion, they cannot hold office again.

How is it different from other legal cases against Trump?

Legally, no law bars any convicted candidate from contesting in the US elections. However, this case is also different from the other legal challenges against Trump, in cases related to his payments to a former adult film star, not handing over official documents back to the government after he stepped down from his post in 2020, and others.

In those cases, the question was whether a conviction would mean he could still run for President, and the answer was believed to be a ‘yes’.

A Politico report this year noted, “A Trump electoral victory from behind bars would open a constitutional can of worms, but the general view among legal scholars is that the need for a duly elected president to fulfill the duties of office would override a criminal conviction and require the sentence to at least be put on hold. And if Trump were convicted of a federal crime, he could even try to pardon himself immediately upon taking office…”

The Maine ruling has been paused for now, as Trump looks to appeal in a trial court in the state.

If the case reaches the Supreme Court, many larger, legal questions will have to be considered – whether the 14th Amendment can bar a Presidential candidate from being elected again, whether courts have the power to order candidates off the ballots, and so on. US Supreme Court judges are appointed by Presidents on partisan lines for lifetime tenures and currently have a majority of Conservative judges. It means that the ruling is expected to go his way.

Reuters reported, “A ruling that Trump is disqualified from the presidency would be momentous step with seismic political implications.”

What does this case mean for Trump’s prospects before November?

Both Republicans and Democrats will hold their primaries in Colorado and 12 other states on March 5, the biggest day of primaries in the US presidential election calendar, known as Super Tuesday.

Trump’s removal from two state primaries’ ballot impacts his selection as the party candidate there. If the removal holds despite the legal challenges, Trump could be taken off the November ballot where he will likely be pitted against Biden.

Traditionally, voters in Colorado have chosen the Democratic Party’s candidate for President. So Trump’s removal would not ultimately impact the elections’ results.

However, Associated Press reported that Trump won one of Maine’s four Electoral College votes in 2020 by winning the state’s 2nd Congressional District, indicating his ability to garner a somewhat significant number of votes there.