China This Week | Putin dials Xi, China frowns at India-Philippines drills, but welcomes PM Modi for visit

On the US targeting of India with increased tariffs because of its oil imports from Russia, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said: “China’s opposition to the abuse of tariffs is consistent and clear.” Chinese state media websites came out strongly against the US action, along with some advice for India against relying on the Americans.

There was also commentary on a joint India-Philippines naval exercise in the South China Sea. The region has seen increasing disputes over the last few years, but India and the Philippines coming together to send a signal to China, is a new development.

Finally, after the visits of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to China in recent months, Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself will likely travel to China soon.

Here is a closer look at these developments:

1. Putin dials Xi ahead of likely meeting with Trump 

The leaders of China and Russia spoke at a time when the US is targeting countries that have close ties with Russia. Whether this actually has to do with Russia has been debated, as several countries, including India, are currently negotiating trade deals with the US.

UPSHOT: Russia and China have each dealt with the US under Trump in their own ways. While Trump previously spoke positively about Putin and was critical of China, he has seemingly switched his position of late.

China and the US have been communicating on tariffs to secure a trade deal, with China using its monopoly on processing rare earth minerals (which are crucial to most key industries) to its advantage. On the other hand, Trump has become critical of Putin, saying he had “gone absolutely CRAZY” in a Truth Social post. As a Bloomberg columnist noted, “China, it appears, is too big for Trump to bully now.”

Most countries are still developing a playbook on dealing with the swiftly changing policies of the Trump administration. Prime Minister Modi spoke with President Lula Da Silva of Brazil – the other country on which Trump has put a 50% tariff – on Thursday. The President told Reuters that he would initiate a conversation among the BRICS countries (also including India, Russia, and China) on tackling Trump’s tariffs.

2. China comments on India-Philippines in South China Sea

President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr visited India this week for the first time since he came to power in 2022. The navies of the two countries held their first joint exercise close to the Scarborough Shoal, which has previously figured in the China-Philippines dispute.

The official declaration on elevating bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership” contained two mentions of the South China Sea issue. One, the reiteration of a 2016 award on the dispute by an international tribunal, which had ruled that “certain sea areas are within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, because those areas are not overlapped by any possible entitlement of China”. China had rejected the award.

Two, an expression of “concern for the situation in the South China Sea particularly with regard to coercive and aggressive actions that impact on regional peace and stability, and calling on relevant parties to exercise self-restraint…” This was a clear reference to China.

UPSHOT: The South China Sea, apart from its strategic value, sees huge volumes of trade passing through it, and contains reserves of fish and hydrocarbons. China has laid aggressive claims on it, and Southeast Asian nations have attempted to counter it.

For India and the Philippines, which have traditionally not enjoyed close ties (something that PM Modi acknowledged in his address), the South China Sea situation presents an opportunity for collaboration. India has unresolved boundary issues with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and is wary of Chinese assertions in the Indian Ocean Region. President Marcos has shown a greater interest in responding to China than his predecessors.

Multiple reports in the Communist Party mouthpiece, Global Times, described the drills as “more symbolic than substantive”, said the exercise would not yield the “desired” effect, and declared that it amounted to a third party interfering in the dispute. On Friday, a Chinese government spokesperson “urged the Philippines to stop its provocations and propaganda, stop ganging up with others to stir up trouble in the South China Sea”.

3. PM Modi’s potential China visit

A visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to China is likely at the end of this month, according to several reports. China holds the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) this year, and Rajnath Singh, Jaishankar and Doval have visited China to attend other SCO events.

India, Pakistan, Russia, and several Central Asian nations are part of the SCO, which was created as a regional security cooperation organisation in 2001. The summit will be held in the city of Tianjin from August 31 to September 1. If the PM visits, he will also hold bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping, The Indian Express reported.

UPSHOT: The two leaders last met in October 2024 on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia, and PM Modi last visited China in 2019, also for an SCO meeting. The border confrontation in 2020 and the Covid-19 pandemic led to restrictions on flights and visas thereafter, but a thaw is currently underway.

A Global Times report noted that both sides would also hope to seize the opportunity of the “75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties to achieve greater progress in China-India relations”. It cautioned against “some Western media outlets”, which were interpreting the likely visit as an attempt to “hedge against” the US.

“Such a view is rather one-sided. Defending free trade and countering unilateral tariffs is the shared will of most countries in the world today. From the perspective of China, China-India cooperation is not aimed at any third party,” it said.