How COP28 President’s remarks have rekindled fossil fuel debate

The controversy

A video has surfaced from an online event held two weeks ago, in which Al Jaber, in response to questions on whether he would lead the effort to include a fossil fuel phase-down proposal in the final agreement, is heard saying that achieving the 1.5 degree Celsius target was not contingent on an elimination of fossil fuels.

“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that phase-out of fossil fuel is what is going to achieve 1.5 (degree Celsius target). 1.5 is my north star. And a phase-down or phase-out of fossil fuel, in my view, is inevitable, it is essential, but we need to be real, serious and pragmatic about it,” Al Jaber said.

“Please show me a road map for a phase-out of fossil fuel that will allow for sustainable socio-economic development, unless you want to take the world back into caves,” he said.

Besides being a minister in the UAE government, Al Jaber is CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the world’s 12th largest oil company by production. This latter role has provoked attacks since he was appointed president of COP28. Ahead of the conference, Al Jaber was accused of trying to promote the interests of his oil company during meetings with governments. He has denied these accusations.

Fossil fuel debate

Fossil fuels — oil, gas, coal and their derivatives — account for at least 80 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions. There is no way that emissions can be reduced without substantially cutting down the use of these fuels. But that is exactly what influential countries have been attempting to do in the climate negotiations — aiming to cut emissions without touching its source.

Efforts to cut emissions have so far been focused mainly on reducing the relative consumption of energy or on improving energy efficiencies. And global production of fossil fuels continues to rise.

No wonder then that none of the climate targets have ever been achieved. And the current targets too seem way beyond reach right now.

According to the latest projections, all the current climate actions being taken by countries are estimated to bring down annual emissions by just 2 per cent from 2019 levels by 2030 — science says this figure must be at least 43 per cent if any hope of keeping global temperature rise to within 1.5 degree Celsius from pre-industrial averages is to be entertained.

Installation of renewable energy sources like solar or wind, which do not have emissions, are now outpacing new fossil fuel projects, but most of these are meant to cater to increased demand. The replacement of fossil fuel capacity with renewable energy is not happening at a fast enough pace.

The Indian initiative

Interestingly, it was India that set the cat among the pigeons at the COP27 meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, last year by calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels to be included in the final outcome of the meeting. India was trying to turn the tables on the western countries after being stung by the inclusion of coal in the final outcome of COP26 in Glasgow.

It was only a vague mention, though — calling for acceleration of a phase-down of “unabated” coal, without any specific schedule. But it was the first time that any fossil fuel had ever been mentioned in an official COP decision.

India fought hard to get the word ‘phase-out’ changed to ‘phase-down’, with the tacit support of many powerful countries, including the United States and China, both big consumers of coal, like India. It is not clear what the terms ‘phase-out’ and ‘phase-down’ refer to in practical terms — or what “unabated” coal use means. These are terms that would be defined during the negotiations, and are expected to be extremely contentious.

At COP27 last year, India argued against the singling out of coal, and called for the phase-down of all fossil fuels. Coal has been the favourite whipping boy, while oil and natural gas have got a free pass. Last year, the European Union (EU), facing an energy crisis because of the Russia-Ukraine war, even declared natural gas as “green” in some specific uses.

After initial hesitation, both the EU and the US, two of the most influential developed country players in these talks, agreed to back the Indian proposal. But it was eventually torpedoed in the behind-the-scenes negotiations. India does not plan to take the lead on this issue at COP28.

Fossil fuels phase-out is a sensitive subject for most of the powerful players in these negotiations — the US, the EU, China, India, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc. They are either major producers or consumers of fossil fuels, and their economies are dependent on the use of these fuels. It has, therefore, been convenient for them to frame the climate change objectives in more generic terms like emission reductions or temperature targets.

Ready for entry

But that is about to change now. Fossil fuels are most likely to finally make an entry into the climate negotiations at COP28. The pressure to do so is intense — not least because the world is nowhere close to achieving its 2030 targets.

Sultan Al Jaber has said he has invited countries to submit their proposals on fossil fuels phase-out for them to be negotiated upon. The final decisions of COP28 might indeed have a mention of the need to phase down fossil fuels. That itself might be radical, considering it has remained unmentioned for three decades. But the specifics and schedules are unlikely to be decided upon. That will require several more rounds of intense negotiations.