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Journalism of Courage
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend Parliament next month has brought a fresh wave of consternation and confusion to Britain’s already chaotic efforts to leave the EU.
Here are the possible outcomes for Britain ahead:
Lawmakers can resort to a motion of no confidence, ousting Johnson from office. The problem is the opposition cannot agree on a caretaker PM. Even if it succeeded, Johnson could refuse to resign and schedule a general election for November, in effect forcing through a no-deal Brexit.
If lawmakers should succeed in passing legislation outlawing a no-deal Brexit, Johnson could try to outflank them again by calling a general election. To call an election, Johnson would need the support of two-thirds of the House of Commons, so he would need opposition votes.
The critical date is October 17-18, when the bloc’s leaders meet, providing a chance for last-minute negotiations. If a
no-deal Brexit is still a possibility, Johnson can put a gun to the heads of European leaders to get a revised deal, then put the gun to the heads of his lawmakers to get the measure passed.
If European leaders offer too few concessions for his liking, Johnson might plow ahead with a no-deal exit. It is, after all, the default option. The risk, however, is that the predictions of economic chaos after a no-deal Brexit are borne out, making an election unwinnable for him, as per an NYT report
