Ponniyin Selvan 2 box office prediction: Mani Ratnam’s film holds strong in Tamil Nadu, all eyes on its pan-India collection

Trade analyst Ramesh Bala tells Indianexpress.com, “Ponniyin Selvan at least in Tamil Nadu is all time No 1 and also in most of the major oversees markets. Many families and fans are waiting to watch this sequel. In the month of May, schools and colleges have their summer vacation. It will do well and there is expectations of fans to see how the film concludes the story. It will have a steady run at the box office (in Tamil Nadu).”

He adds, “It might not be a Pathaan kind of bonanza but it will do well. Given the genre, it will do well wherever PS1 has done well. In Hindi and Telugu, the first iteration didn’t fare well. I am expecting PS2 to mirror PS1 in terms of collection in the strong areas as well as the weak areas.”

Comparing the box office performance between the two sequels, Ramesh says, “If you look at other movies like KGF1 , KGF 2 and Baahubali 1 and Baahubali 2, the collections had a huge difference between the two parts but I think in PS2 there might not be a huge increase in the revenue. It’s coming within months of the first film and people didn’t have to wait for two-three years to watch it. It will be more more or less the same box office earning.”

While Ponniyin Selvan 1 was a clear winner in the Tamil market, it’s performance at the geographically closer box offices of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was very different. PS1 did a gross business of Rs 14.97 crores in the Telugu version, despite having familiar names such as Trisha, Jayam and Karthi in the star cast. At the Malayalam box office, it collected Rs 7.44 crores.

Venkat Prasad, programming manager of Prasads multiplex chain, Hyderabad, reveals that the advance booking in the Telugu market for the opening day is better for PS2 in Telugu than PS2 in Tamil.

“Comparatively there’s more than 50 percent increase in the opening day collection. The first part didn’t do well in Telugu but did well in Tamil. But if you look at the advance bookings Telugu is much bigger than Tamil. The difference between Tamil and Telugu is only 10 percent but if you look at the collections in advance booking, comparatively, Telugu is bigger,” he says.

Film critic and trade expert Jeevi breaks down why PS1 didn’t move the needle in the Telugu market. He says, “The issue with PS1 was that Dil Raju had bought it for a certain amount and it almost recovered. The problem with PS1 with Telugu audience is that it’s rooted in Tamil milieu in terms of the names of the characters, the locations. For Telugu there is no reference to those characters.”

In his opinion the excitement in Telugu audience for PS2 is lesser than it prequel but believes that “it might improve with word of mouth.” He also feels that after the OTT release many people are up to date with the film’s characters and the second part might be interesting for them.

However, PS2 has a legit competitor in the Telugu market this time. Jeevi shares, “Another film releasing is Agent and its going to be obviously bigger and there will be comparison. Agent is sold at a bigger price. If you look at the standalone Telugu market, Agent is far bigger film in Telugu than PS 2. I am talking about sales of the films.”

Agent stars Akhil Akkineni and Mammootty. The film also brings Bollywood actor Dino Morea to the Telugu industry for the first time.

During the promotions of Ponniyin Selvan 2, Karthi, who plays the role of Vallavaraiyan Vandiyadevan in the film, shared how in the Hindi belt, PS1 picked up only after the OTT release on Prime Video. During a press conference, the actor said, “I think they (the audience in the North) found it a bit difficult to understand. That’s what I felt initially. When you are reading a novel, you will forget the names by the time you get to the tenth page. Similarly, here too they had that problem. However, when the film was released on OTT, they were able to get it. So, they will be able to better understand the film when the second part comes.”

So does PS2’s box office run in Hindi have a better chance than PS1, which collected Rs 22.91 crore? Mumbai-based trade analyst Atul Mohan says, “People who saw the film on OTT didn’t pay for it and if someone watched the film for free, they don’t want to spend money and will come back to OTT. There is no excitement in Hindi and absolutely zero buzz. There is no excitement in the trade also.”

Not to forget that Salman Khan’s Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan is still in theatres and, according to Atul, “Whoever wants to go to theatres, their first choice is going to be Kisi Ka Bhai Kisi Ki Jaan.”

However, trade analyst Taran Adarsh is hopeful of PS2’s fate in the Hindi belt. He cites the example of other films and says, “I think Mani Ratnam is a master storyteller and he is an absolute genius. The first part was a humungous hit in the south. I am sure it will take a huge hit in Tamil version but in Hindi, it’s a wait and watch. It happened with Drishyam also that it created a ground on OTT for the second part.”

Weighing on this, Ramesh Bala concludes by saying, “It (buzz created by OTT) will help the second part definitely but I am thinking 10 -20 percent extra footfall of the audience. Of course people have watched it on Prime, they are familiar with the film but I am not expecting them to show up in huge numbers. So, I am thinking may 20 percent increase in the footfall of PS2 because of the OTT phenomenon. Anything more than that is definitely a bonus.”