Overpopulation by John Kuti

Doom,version one

In 1798,Robert Malthus wrote an essay that got economics the name of ‘dismal science’. It was called An Essay on the Principle of Population. He said it was impossible for the number of people to increase,and even worse,it was impossible for the standard of living to rise. The argument went like this:

* population naturally increases geometrically: 2,4,8,16 . . .

* food production increases arithmetically: 2,4,6,8 . . .

* so,population will be controlled by lack of food,the same as it is for animals; some people will always be starving.

A lot of people disliked Malthus’ point of view. Often,because it seemed to go against the idea of progress,which was so important for other social theories of the time. Anyway,the experience of the next two centuries shows that something must be wrong with the theory. In the 19th century,world population rose from one to 1.7 billion. In the 20th,it increased to about six billion.

Doom,version two

In 1961,J G Ballard wrote a story called ‘Billenium’. It’s about a world where the population has gone on increasing at three per cent a year to reach a figure of at least 20 billion,although the true number is kept secret. To make space for growing food,everyone lives in giant cities where buildings are divided into little cubicles. A single person can have four square metres and a married couple six. Everyone has enough to eat,but life is certainly very inconvenient. People spend most of the time waiting in queues for the bathroom or anywhere else they want to go.

Reality

The real situation is not as bad as these alarming predictions. A very surprising and dramatic change is happening in the world,but it is not what Malthus or Ballard predicted. To understand the statistics,we need first to think about the two ways the number of people can go up.

The fertility rate

The most obvious way to increase population is for more babies to be born. If the population is exactly constant,the average woman has 2.1 children. This number is called the ‘replacement rate’. These rates are going down very fast. The peak was in the period 1965–75 at 4.9; now the rate for the world as a whole is 2.8. However,there is still a big difference between the developed countries,where the rate is 1.6 and poor countries where it is 3. To quote some extreme examples,in Italy the figure is 1.2 and in Zambia 5.6.

Life expectancy

The other reason why there are more people now is that we live longer. This figure also shows a dramatic change. People born in 1950 could expect,on average,across the world,to live 45 years. Now the world life expectancy at birth is 65,and the United Nations predicts this will increase to 76 in the next 50 years.

Predictions of doom

Malthus and Ballard were still right about some things. The dismal picture painted by Malthus is still true in poor countries where 18 million people starve every year,and more than a billion people don’t have a supply of clean drinking water. Ballard is right about the trend towards city life. By the year 2006,the United Nations predicts that more than 50 per cent of people will live in cities.

City life in the developed world

At least in the rich countries,the move into cities seems to be connected with falling fertility rates. It is more expensive to have a child in the city,and children are less useful as workers. Women receive a better education and are able to work – so they have more to lose by becoming mothers. City life seems to encourage individualism – people become more interested in getting an education and a career. They marry later in life,and divorce more often,so producing smaller families.

At the moment,it seems quite possible that the same pattern will be repeated everywhere. One UN forecast now foresees a world population of about five billion in 2100. But the more time you spend looking at predictions,the more you realise that the human race is a surprising phenomenon. It looks like we will have a clearer idea of what will happen in ten or 20 years’ time when the present generation of parents moves beyond childbearing age.

Now there are 6,318,042,422 people.

Vocabulary

Five words/phrases from the text:

* standard of living: how much money and comfort you have

* alarming: surprising and frightening

* peak: high point

* life expectancy: how long you will live

* childbearing: able to have a baby

Exercise one

Vocabulary gap fill. Now use the five words/phrases to fill the gaps in the sentences below:

Women usually have a slightly higher ………[1 than men.

Fewer women of ……… [2 age are married than in the previous generation.

The number of people still living in poverty in industrialised societies is ………[3

People with a university degree usually have a better ………[4 than those who don’t.

There was a ………[5 in the amount of electricity used during the half-time interval of the Cup Final.

Exercise two

Comprehension: word order. Put the words below in order to make correct sentences about the text:

1. in a densely populated / Despite living / short of food / the writer / has never been / part of England

2. been wrong / would never be able / that the human population / seems to have / Malthus’ prediction / to feed itself

3. in two hundred / six times / population / The world / has increased / years

4. of the human / to replace itself / The ability / population / has been declining

5. in cities /of us / now live / which lowers / Over half / the birth rate

English and culture

Julian Barnes – a contemporary British author who has been shortlisted for several major literary prizes – described Britain as the land of embarrassment and breakfast. What do you think embarrasses British people? What is considered embarrassing in your country?

Answers

Vocabulary

1. life expectancy

2. child-bearing

3. alarming

4. standard of living

5. peak

Comprehension

1. Despite living in a densely populated part of England,the writer has never been short of food

2. Malthus’ prediction that the human population would never be able to feed itself seems to have been wrong

3. The world population has increased six times in two hundred years

4. The ability of the human population to replace itself has been declining

5. Over half of us now live in cities,which lowers the birth rate