‘IITM model will help in long-range monsoon forecast in advance by 2017’

On the sidelines of a national meet organised by the Ocean Society of India and IITM,Dr Shailesh Nayak,Secretary,Ministry of Earth Sciences,said “The model was used last year and we achieved 70 per cent accuracy. We are working towards improving it. While we got it right for the seasonal forecast using the dynamical model where we predicted 108 per cent rainfall as against the actual realised 106 per cent,we failed on the statistical model which predicted only 98 per cent. Dynamical model developed here with the help of the other institutes will be the future for predictions.’’

He said the national committee will hold discussions on the model and it should eventually be the future for predictions for long-range forecasts. An integrated model will be developed in the coming years which will include short-range forecast,long-range forecast as well as seasonal forecast. This is a part of the Monsoon Mission undertaken by the MoES which has earmarked Rs 400 crore for the plan.

Nayak,who is also the chairman of the Earth System Sciences Organisation (ESSO) and Earth Commission,said the considerable improvement in the short term to medium range forecast has helped in accurate predictions before cyclones Phailin,Thaen,Helen and Lehar days before,which was not possible before 2009. There are plans to switch to a dynamical model of forecasting soon,which will be a shift from the earlier statistical model,he said.