Covid positivity rate falls in Pune district; new cases may decline in 10-15 days, say experts

“Reduction in new infections has already started but hospitalisations will reduce after 10-15 days,” Dr Dhananjay Kelkar, medical director of Deenanath Mangeskhar Hospital, told The Indian Express.

Written by Anuradha Mascarenhas

Pune | April 29, 2021 07:35 PM IST

3 min read

Covid positivity rate falls in Pune district; new cases may decline in 10-15 days, say experts

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The weekly Covid positivity rate in Pune district has come down by over 3 per cent — from 26.6 per cent in the week of April 15-21 to 23.3 percent in the week of April 22-28. Experts say that according to the trend, the number of fresh cases usually see a decline 10 to 15 days after the positivity rate drops.

The lockdown-like restrictions has helped in bringing down the positivity rate as it slows the transmissibility of the disease, said Dr Kelkar. He also said that eventually, when a third wave of coronavirus infections arrives, at least the health infrastructure in the district will not be overwhelmed.

A further breakdown of the district numbers shows that the positivity rate in Pune city was 24.1 per cent in the week of April 15 to 21, which has now come down to 19.9 per cent in the week of April 22 to 28, while in Pimpri-Chinchwad the positivity rate in the week of April 15-21 was at 25.4 per cent, which is down to 22.7 per cent in the week of April 22-28. In Pune Rural, the weekly positivity rate was 32.9 per cent in the week of April 15 to 21, which fell to 31.5 per cent in the week of April 22-28.

From March last year till April 28 this year, there have been a total of 8.17 lakh Covid-19 cases in Pune district. The district has seen 12,762 deaths due to the infection so far.

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As of April 28, Pune district has as many as 15,636 critical patients, of which 4,557 are in the intensive care unit and among these, 1,407 are on ventilator support. There are another 11,079 Covid positive patients on oxygen support. According to reports across 638 healthcare facilities (including dedicated Covid hospitals and healthcare centres), there are a total of 4,668 ICU beds, of which 1,518 are beds with ventilators in Pune district. There are 12,220 oxygen-supported beds in Pune district.

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Dr Sanjay Lalwani, medical director of Bharati Hospital, said that among those who get infected, it takes usually a week or so for some to get critical and hence the demand for ICU beds and ventilators has been more or less the same.

“Due to the lockdown restriction measures, by May 15, we assume the infectivity will come down. Still, unlike last year’s lockdown which was able to achieve the plateau effect, it will take some time during this second wave to achieve that impact due to nature of restrictive measures, as a certain number of people are still out in the morning hours,” he said.

The case fatality rate (CFR) in Pune district is now at 1.5 per cent. According to WHO, CFR is a measure of severity of a disease and is defined as the proportion of reported cases of a specified disease or condition which are fatal within a specified time. With proper and timely treatment, the CFR should remain below 1 per cent.

Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. ``Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) "Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. ``At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure "For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. ``Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions X (Twitter): @runaanu ... Read More

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