Anti-incumbency threatens Maya,SP her key challenger

A third important development is the emergence of the Congress as a respectable factor in state politics after a gap of more than two decades. For the first time,none of its rivals is taking the Congress lightly,thanks to Rahul Gandhi’s energetic campaigning and some deft moves by the party.

The election process has already covered 226 of the 403 constituencies in eastern and central UP. The remaining 177 constituencies,which will be covered in the last three phases,are mostly in western UP and parts of Bundelkhand.

The anti-incumbency factor against the BSP has much to do with the state government’s failure to provide a corruption-free administration in its interface with the people. The voters’ main grievance is that they are forced to pay bribes even for getting things like income certificates,caste certificates,police verification report for the issuance of passports,birth certificates,old-age pension,in short almost everything,like never before.

A second grievance is the “officer raj” where the voice of the people’s representatives on issues of public interest has ceased to matter. The third major charge is that the BSP government is only taking care of Dalits,and Prevention of Atrocities Against the SC Act was being misused.

The SP seems to have been the most successful in tapping this disenchantment with the BSP. Its candidates were well placed in almost all regions which went to the polls in the first four phases,despite the stigma of the lawlessness of the previous Mulayam Singh government and constant reminders by Chief Minister Mayawati,Rahul Gandhi and BJP leaders.

Apparently,young Akhilesh Yadav’s appeal,and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s constant reassurance that the SP would not repeat past mistakes,have improved its acceptability beyond its traditional supporters.

Also,although Muslims are no longer voting as a bloc,most of them still seem to prefer the SP. Initially,Muslims in constituencies like Tanda in Ambedkar Nagar and Mubarakpur in Azamgarh were influenced by the Congress announcement of the quota within OBC quota for backward Muslims and the special package for weavers,but they later developed hesitation in fully backing the Congress.

However,the BSP’s support among its core Dalit voters hasn’t suffered much erosion. It is mainly because the BSP rule has given the Dalits a sense of security from dominant landed communities in rural areas and,generally,from the police which tended to side with the powerful. Although schemes like development of Ambedkar villages,allotment of land to landless,and free houses under the Kanshiram Shahari Garib Awas Yojna have benefited people of all communities,the Dalits have been the largest section of beneficiaries.

The BSP is hoping that the unstinted support of Dalits,combined with the division of anti-government votes among three main contenders — the SP,the Congress and the BJP — besides several smaller parties,will help it retain power.

The Congress decision to increase representation to OBCs,MBCs and Muslims and,among Dalits,the Koris and the Pasis in the selection of candidates has troubled both the BSP and the SP. Leaders in both parties admit that the Congress is going to cut into their vote base.

This has also affected the BJP indirectly. For example,in Devipatan range,which was traditionally considered to be a pro-BJP field due to its high Muslim population before the 2009 Lok Sabha polls,Congress candidates are reported to be locked in triangular or four-cornered contests in many seats. In many urban areas too,the Congress candidates are well placed.

Rahul Gandhi’s campainging has created a situation where no party can afford to take the Congress lightly. The Congress as a respectable factor is back in political debates after a gap of more than two decades.

Like the Congress,the BJP has also tried its own version of Mandalisation in ticket distribution,although on a smaller scale. The party is hoping to boost its tally from polarization of Hindus votes as a reaction to wooing of Muslims by the SP and the Congress,and smaller outfits like the Peace Party. It is highlighting the weavers’ package,the quota within quota,Congress leaders’ contradictory statements on the Batla House encounter,and statements of Law Minister Salman Khurshid and Steel Minister Beni Prasad Verma on Muslim quota as evidence of the Congress’s appeasement policy.

The campaigning by Babu Singh Kushwaha,Mayawati’s former family welfare minister who is an accused in the NRHM scam,may help the BJP to an extent in Bundelkhand and some other areas by getting Kushwaha votes,but it is double-edged sword which may also harm the party in urban areas.

Whatever the claims,the heavy polling in all four phases seems to have foxed all parties. Opposition parties believe that it reflects a strong anti-government sentiment driving the voters,but are not sure whom it will help. BSP leaders hope the high polling is driven by Dalits. Behind the conjectures is the fact that,for the first time,about 60 per cent voters are 40 years or younger.