His KEY skills

According to his theory,the American electorate chooses a President not on the basis of the campaign but according to how well the party in power has governed the country. “The horse race theory is everything that counts is the campaign. Billions are spent which would have been better served if given to charity,” Lichtman,a professor of history and formerly chair of the Department of History at American University in Washington D.C.,says.

The prediction model is based on 13 keys and to showcase its effectiveness to the audience,Lichtman took them through all the keys,asking the enthusiastic gathering to ascertain if they were true or false. It takes six or more keys to be false for the incumbent President to lose the elections and,according to Litchman,Obama got 11 of them in his favour.

“The keys system was developed in 1981,in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok,founder of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics,based on the theory of pragmatic voting. We included simple evaluation of the party mandate,contest,incumbency,third party,short-term economy,long-term economy,policy change,social unrest,scandal,foreign/military failure,foreign/military success,incumbent charisma and challenger charisma,” the professor,who is currently on a 21-day five-city India tour,says.

Lichtman,when asked whether the keys can be used to predict results of polls in India,says,“Whichever country I go people ask me this same question. The keys are designed to work in a two-party system. I am going to Delhi and will meet some Indian scholars to try and see whether this can be applied in India. However,it will be a challenge to implement them in a multi-party system.”

The historian also has good news for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,who was also in the City of Joy recently. He thinks she might win in 2016 if the Obama government does well in the next four years.

After the interaction many went and congratulated Lichtman on his brilliant speech and rich insights. “Indians seem to know a lot about American politics. The response has been good and I am really looking forward to the rest of the trip. I love Indian cuisine as the suburb in D.C. where I live has five Indian restaurants. I am getting to sample some excellent fish dishes and daal,” the poll prophet says.