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This is an archive article published on December 18, 2017

Read the numbers: Congress is closing in on BJP, on vote share, seats

Congress has improved its tally from 51 seats in 2002 to 59 and 60 in 2007 and 2012. If the party can maintain its current leads, it is set to win its highest number of seats since 1985.

Modi a better actor than Amitabh, says Rahul Congress vice President Rahul Gandhi addressing a public meeting in Guajrat. (file photo)

After the strong show in Gujarat, Congress president Rahul Gandhi can take solace in American sculptor Ruth Asawa’s quote: “sculpture is like farming, if you just keep at it, you can get quite a lot done.”

The chisel was passed down to Rahul Gandhi after successive defeats in different state assemblies saw the Congress meekly concede the State to an aggressive opposition. Even before his elevation as party president, the Congress has been slowly chipping away at the BJP vote share. The gap this time, according to trends till 3.00 pm, was down to 8.4 per cent — the lowest in BJP’s 22-year rule. This, however, could increase or decrease further as the Election Commission is yet to declare the complete results.

In 2012, the difference in vote share between the two parties was 9 per cent, after BJP polled 47.9 per cent votes against Congress’ 38.9 per cent. And in 2007, the BJP’s vote share was 49.12 per cent against 39.63 per cent of the Congress. The gap was 9.49 per cent then. Thus the party gained 0.49 per cent on the BJP in 2012 in comparison to 2007. The loss in vote share was attributed to former chief minister Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) polling 3.6 per cent of the total votes. With the GPP out of the equation in 2017, the BJP was expected to improve on its previous showing, while the Congress was wary of Shankersinh Vaghela’s Jan Vikalp Morcha eating into its vote share. Neither of the two happened, though.

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Ever since the 2002 Assembly elections, the BJP vote share has been steadily falling. The party had cornered 49.85 per cent of the votes in 2002, riding on the Hindutva wave. It is the party’s highest-ever in all of its six terms. Ever the Congress had gained due to the polarisation as its vote share increased to 39.45 per cent.

Another worrying factor for the BJP in Gujarat is that its seat tally has also been steadily shrinking. It won 127 seats in 2002, the maximum it has ever won so far. In the next two elections, its scorecard read: 117 and 115. Now, in 2017, it slipped below 100 seats.

As for the Congress, it has improved its tally from 51 seats in 2002 to 59 and 60 in 2007 and 2012. If the party can maintain its current leads, it is set to win its highest number of seats since 1985.

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