Richter’s scale measuring vibrations in Earth. (Thinkstock)
A letter by an Indian man to Prime Minister Narendra Modi warning of a catastrophic tsunami at the end of this year in the Indian Ocean has caused panic in neighbouring Pakistan while eliciting no response from PM Modi’s office. The man named Babu Kalayil made the prediction claiming clairvoyant capabilities leading to a Pakistani intelligence agency warning Pakistan’s Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Authority (ERRA) of a strong underwater quake and/or tsunami event, reported the Express Tribune citing a report by BBC Urdu.
In the letter written to PM Modi on September 20, 2017, Kalayil claimed to be the director of B.K. Research Association for E.S.P. (Extrasensory Perception and Space Prediction). He said that he had made an observation on August 20 this year that the quake can hit India, China, Japan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and some Gulf countries before December 31, 2017.
The letter went viral on social media and was apparently taken seriously by Pakistani officials who advised preparations for a worst case scenario. The Express Tribune reported Pakistan’s top intelligence agency purportedly warned ERRA, which is the Pakistani government agency responsible for disaster management.
Kalayil had predicted in his letter that the massive earthquake would shake the Indian Ocean and cause a massive tsunami.
The Express Tribune Report carried another letter carried purportedly by ERRA, Pakistani PMO, issued on November 1, 2017 giving directions that preparations with regard to standard operating procedures (SOPs) should be undertaken on war footing.
“An Information Report has been received from DG, Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] that there is, reportedly, likelihood of [a] large scale earthquake, as being expected, in the Indian Ocean in near future which may vigorously shake the Asian continental areas, including Pakistan. There is, therefore, a need to sensitise concern[ed] departments to be on [the] vigil and take care of any natural disaster…,” said the letter in the report.
“The SOPs will be put up to ERRA’s acting deputy chairman by Monday, November 6, 2017,” it added.
The report said that neither ERRA nor the ISI or Pakistan Meteorological Department have commented on the matter or responded to the paper’s questions regarding the letter.
The report goes on to say that the letter from ERRA appeared to be fake as the ISI had nothing to do with prediction of a natural calamity. It did, meanwhile, quote from the BBC report citing Met Department Chief Ghulam Rasool who raised doubts on the prediction.
Met Department chief Dr Ghulam Rasool, as quoted in the Express Tribune report, told BBC Urdu: “This prediction has no scientific justification, albeit, we are preparing to save ourselves from its effects. ERRA has also started its work by writing the letter. I contacted Japanese experts after this prediction but they were not aware of any technology which could tell about an earthquake in advance.”
Suggesting that the absence of technology to predict earthquakes much in advance doesn’t mean it can never be made possible, he said, “Therefore, we should not ignore such information and should prepare because there is a threat of an undersea earthquake in this area and there have been tremors here in the past as well.”




