Why India’s reliance on finger-spinners over match-winner Kuldeep Yadav goes against SENA template of success

The left-arm wrist-spinner’s inclusion in the team may not have altered the results after meek batting displays in Perth and Adelaide. However, empirical and historical evidence suggests a rethink in team strategy is in order.

Playing Kuldeep, a proven match-winner, would show an aggressive mindset instead of relying on defensive mini-contests that try to just delay the inevitable. Since January 2016 in Australia, visiting spinners have cumulatively accounted for only 30 percent (42) of the total wickets (139) in wins over the hosts. Wrist-spinners occupy three of the top five slots.

And though Kuldeep may not have had the best of returns Down Under in 2019-20, he ranks among the best wicket-taking spinners in SENA countries in the same timeline.

Holding pivotal batting slots in the order at No. 5 and 7 this series, Axar and Sundar, however, proved largely ineffective in the crucial passages of Australia’s 265-run chase in Adelaide on Thursday. While they bagged a wicket each within two overs into their respective spells, India had tasked the tweakers to control a sizable portion of the middle-overs spread between overs 22 and 37.

With six wickets in hand, Australia’s required rate peaked at the end of the 31st over at 6.31 when the spinners had combined for 10 overs for 38 runs, a run-constricting job done well briefly. But the game was largely given away within 60 deliveries against an inexperienced middle order. Axar, Sundar and seamer Harshit Rana gave away seven fours and four sixes between overs 31-41.

It brought back memories of the recurring pattern from the 2010s when Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja threatened to control the run-flow, only until Australia decided to kick on and settle games in their backyard. Axar and Sundar provide the same variety as right and left-arm spinners, but offer no novelty with the craft.

“I can understand why there are two spinners playing in the team, along with Nitish Reddy. They want that batting depth, because Axar and Washington can bat, but bowling ke upar bhi thoda dhyan de do yaar (concentrate on bowling as well). On these big grounds, if Kuldeep can’t bowl with a lot of freedom, where will he play? And there will be overspin, which will give him more bounce,” Ashwin said after the series opener on his YouTube channel.

Irrespective of the format, the Gambhir model continues to bank on the currency of runs, with bat and ball. The neglect of out-and-out strike bowlers often backfires on SENA (South Africa, England, New Zealand, Australia) pitches. Kuldeep warmed the bench for the entire English Test summer this year before being repeated in Australia.

A cursory glance at the success rate and nature of visiting spinners in SENA countries would have shown that India’s reliance on finger-spinners was going against the current trend. Since 2016, visiting sides have recorded 71 ODI wins in bilateral series in these four countries, with spin contributing only 231 of the total 620 wickets.

The disparity is glaring, but the strike rates of pace and spin are not that different ,at 29.4 and 30.9 respectively, lending more emphasis to the nature of the bowlers deployed.

Kuldeep stands second in terms of wickets (31 in 12 matches) in the aforementioned spin club; his 14.80 average and 20.4 strike rate topped the charts, led by four wrist-spinners.

Waning trust in top order?

It may be argued that India’s apprehensions about fielding Kuldeep are exaggerated by the absence of Jasprit Bumrah and the core-stabilising Hardik Pandya. But if early signs are anything to go by, India will continue to fancy eight batters and the left-right batting combination even on foreign strips.

The decision to promote Axar to number five even outside the sub-continent also offers an insight into the think tank’s dwindling confidence in the right-handed top order currently occupied by the ageing Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, skipper Shubman Gill and his deputy Shreyas Iyer.

And while the temptation to include two left-handers has been hard to resist for coach Gambhir, it has been anything but organic. The Axar punt comes at the expense of a proven No. 5 in KL Rahul, who dominated the previous World Cup year with over 1,000 runs at a 60-plus average in the slot.

Undeniably talented but still an unproven entity, Sundar’s forced positioning as a finisher at No. 7 also challenges the practicality of the batting-loaded template in a format that offers no draws.

India will have six more try-outs outside home in the 50-over format – three each in England and New Zealand in 2026 – before another World Cup year.

An India gunning for overseas wins with multiple orthodox spinners in the XI will be a side fighting an established template to strike gold in southern Africa in November 2027.