PM Narendra Modi’s 10 million jobs challenge may be his biggest re-election risk

Questions are increasing about Modi’s ability to fulfill his 10-million-jobs-a-year campaign pledge with less than two years to go before he faces re-election. Few were surprised when he overhauled his cabinet on Sunday, replacing Skill Development Minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy with Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan and Labor Minister Bandaru Dattatreya with Junior finance minister Santosh Kumar Gangwar. Pradhan has successfully implemented Modi’s pet projects, including offering clean cooking gas to the poor.

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“There’s been a complete failure when it comes to jobs creation and skilling,” said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a political analyst and author of a biography on Modi. “The reshuffle is a clear indicator that Mr. Modi is aware of the political risks this can create in 2019.”

To be sure, there’s demand for the skilled. India’s government estimates the country will need an extra 110 million workers across 24 sectors of the economy by 2022, compared with the 105 million who will enter the workforce.

What’s missing though is that only 5 percent of the current workforce possesses the required skills and it’s a race against the clock to train them all. Lack of funding and shortage of qualified trainers are among the reasons cited for the lag.

Bridging the Gap

India working age (15-59 years) 62 per cent of population Possess formal skills 5 per cent in India; UK 68 per cent; Germany 75 per cent; U.S. 52 per cent; Japan 80 per cent Average age of population by 2020 India 29 years; US 40; Europe 46 India existing workers to be skilled or re-skilled 298 million India new jobseekers needing skilling (2015-2022) 105 million India total skilling target by 2022 400 million.