US job growth revised down by 911,000 in government benchmark review

Economists had expected the adjustment to show a decline of between 400,000 and one million jobs. For the 12 months through March 2024, the level of employment was revised down by 598,000.

“The reading is a preliminary estimate of the BLS’ annual benchmark revision to payroll data,” Reuters reported, citing government officials.

The revision comes days after new figures showed job growth nearly stalled in August, with June marking the first month of job losses in more than four years.

The BLS conducts this benchmark once a year by comparing its monthly payroll survey, which samples about 121,000 businesses and government agencies, with a fuller database of unemployment insurance tax records known as the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW).

A final version of the benchmark will be released in February alongside the January employment report.

Economists told Reuters that the slowdown has been influenced by trade policy uncertainty, tighter immigration measures that limited labour supply, and growing use of artificial intelligence and automation, which reduced demand for workers.

Despite the downgrade, analysts said it was unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, with rate cuts expected to resume next week after being paused in January.

Sharp downward revisions to May and June payroll figures last month led President Trump to dismiss BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her without evidence of manipulating the numbers. He has since nominated E.J. Antoni, a critic of the BLS who has suggested suspending the monthly report, a move many economists have opposed.

The National Association for Business Economics urged policymakers and businesses to support the BLS, stating the need to ensure that US statistics remain “accurate, independent, and trusted worldwide,” Reuters reported.