As Congress power struggle intensifies in Karnataka, why party high command faces a dilemma

However, there is a growing sense that a change of guard is imminent, if not immediately, but sometime next year. Sources said the timing and operationalisation of the change would be crucial. “At any cost, Siddaramaiah has to be taken on board to ensure that the transition, if any, is smooth,” a source said.

Another source pointed to a variety of reasons, both national and state-specific, to explain why the high command was not inclined to effect a change right now.

Siddaramaiah is the only CM hailing from the OBC community and is seen as key to ensuring the smooth completion of the caste census in Karnataka. The party also feels that replacing him with a Vokkaliga (Shivakumar) may derail Rahul Gandhi’s social justice plank at a time when neighbouring Kerala and Tamil Nadu are set to go to polls next year.

“It is no secret that Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba strongman who enjoys the support of a large section of MLAs, wants to beat D Devaraj Urs’s record as the longest-serving CM of Karnataka,” said a Congress insider. Urs served as the Karnataka CM for seven years and 239 days, while Siddaramaiah has been CM for seven years and 194 days.

The Congress also feels replacing Siddaramaiah could turn the Ahinda — Kannada acronym for Alpasankhyataru (Minorities), Hindulidavaru (Backward Classes), and Dalitaru (Dalits) — vote bank, whose support he assiduously cultivated, against the party. In that sense, it is not a binary between two faces, making the decision far more tricky. It is also not a secret that Rahul Gandhi has immense respect for Siddaramaiah. Those close to him say that while the Ahinda vote base is solidly behind Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar does not command the full support of the Vokkaligas, who are divided between Congress and the JD(S).

Arguments in Shivakumar’s favour

But there are aspects that go against him, too. Siddaramaiah is 78 and will be over 80 by the time Karnataka goes to Assembly polls in 2028. His age presents the Congress with questions like: Can the party go for elections under an octogenarian, who has already declared that he has no desire to contest again and can he be expected to lead a spirited fight against the BJP when he has nothing to gain?

Those favouring a change of guard argue that Shivakumar is resourceful and will leave no stone unturned to ensure that he retains the CM’s post, but the corruption taint is a key factor that is weighing against him. The Congress leadership, smarting under the humiliating defeat in Bihar and bracing for key elections in five months, knows that Shivakumar will mount relentless pressure, but wants to buy some time.

Those close to Shivakumar, who has openly talked about the existence of a power-sharing formula, know that the high command is weak. As the central leadership has not really contradicted Shivakumar’s claims, reneging on the promise could affect the leadership’s credibility.

“The high command could not implement the power-sharing formula in Chhattisgarh and could not force Ashok Gehlot to make way for Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan. They believe only relentless pressure can force the high command’s hand,” a source said, adding Kharge would now sit with Sonia and Rahul in the coming days to find a way to placate Shivakumar, who enjoys a good rapport with Sonia and AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Even as the possibility of the high command summoning both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to Delhi for talks is not being discounted, the central leadership has so far failed to ensure discipline. Despite AICC general secretary in charge of Karnataka Randeep Singh Surjewala’s warning to MLAs to avoid “needless statements” on the leadership issue, leaders are freely speaking their minds.

State minister Satish Jarkiholi, meanwhile, has added a layer of intrigue. After a late-night meeting with Shivakumar on Tuesday, he came out and expressed his support to the CM, claiming that “there will be no change in leadership. Jarkiholi, often seen as a CM aspirant himself, is a close aide of Siddaramaiah.

“There is always leadership inside the party. In any party, a leader is picked, and we have picked Siddaramaiah. It was the same in the past, and (even) today. There won’t be any change in that,” he said on Wednesday.

With inputs from Akram M