Late monsoon is not a big worry: 5 reasons why

In the past five years, only once has the onset of monsoon happened on its normal date of 1 June – in 2020.

The IMD has predicated that the onset of monsoon will be delayed by four days this year. (Representational)

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The southwest monsoon is late this year – but that is not a reason to worry. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday, May 16, had predicted that the onset of southwest monsoon in Kerala is delayed by four days. An agricultural economy, India is heavily reliant on the monsoon which brings 75 percent of its annual rainfall. But, IMD’s announcement alone is no reason to fret.

Here are 5 reasons why.

Punctuality no indicator of performance: The onset of monsoon, which normally occurs on June 1, merely marks the official beginning of the four-month long season. The onset is just a declaration that a set of criteria defined by the IMD to identify the arrival of the monsoon over the Indian mainland has been met. It does not in any way dictate rainfall over the rest of the season.

Delay may not cause further delays: The monsoon moves northwards from Kerala, and the speed of its movement is dictated by local atmospheric conditions and the development of low-pressure areas. Late arrival over Kerala sometimes delays the arrival at some other locations as well, but not always.

Exception is the rule: In the past five years, only once has the onset of monsoon happened on its normal date of 1 June – in 2020. In the past 11 years, it has happened only once more. For the remaining years, the onset was either a few days earlier or later.

El Nino the bigger fish: The real concern this year is the El Nino effect – the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is likely to develop earlier than expected this year. El Nino acts as a suppressant for Indian rainfall. The IMD’s forecast later this month will assess the kind of impact that El Nino is likely to have on this year’s rain.

Regional rainfall a better indicator: The performance of monsoon is usually measured by the amount of rain the country receives as a whole. However, this parameter does not accurately reflect the situation in different regions, where the rainfall may be above or below normal, even if the monsoon performs well overall.

Read the full report here: Why late onset of monsoon isn’t the worry

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