What AAP’s Delhi win map tells us about where the party is left standing

The AAP’s performance in Muslim-dominated seats was just as impressive as the party won six of the seven constituencies where Muslims are a decisive factor. Like, Dalits, Muslims too found the AAP a stronger challenger to the BJP than the Congress.

The seven seats where Muslims play a decisive role are Matia Mahal (Aaley Mohammed Iqbal), Okhla (Amanatullah Khan), Babarpur (Gopal Rai), Chandni Chowk (Punardeep Singh Sawhney), Ballimaran (Imran Hussain), Seelampur (Chaudhary Zubair Ahmad), and Mustafabad (Adeel Ahmad Khan). Only Mustafabad, where the BJP’s Mohan Singh Bisht defeated Khan, was the exception. The seat was lost largely on account of Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM fielding February 2020 Delhi-riots accused Tahir Hussain who polled 33,474 votes, helping the BJP win by 17,578 votes.

The geographical spread of the AAP’s wins was largely limited to Central, Northeast, and South Delhi. While the AAP was almost wiped out in West Delhi, winning just Tilak Nagar and Delhi Cantonment, in North Delhi, it won just Sultanpur Majra, Burari, and Kirari. In Central and Northeast Delhi, the party won 11 seats and the rest came from South Delhi.

In Central Delhi, AAP won Patel Nagar, Karol Bagh, Sadar Bazar, Ballimaran, Matia Mahal, and Chandni Chowk. In Northeast and East Delhi, the AAP won Seelampur, Babarpur, Gokalpur, Seemapuri, and Kondli. In South Delhi, the AAP has won from Kalkaji, Okhla, Tughlaqabad, Badarpur, Deoli, and Ambedkar Nagar.

These constituencies either have a high population of Muslims and Dalits or large numbers of the working classes and the poor living in slums. This, along with the 44% vote share, indicates that the AAP likely retained the support of the poor who were the principal beneficiaries of its government’s various schemes ranging from free electricity and water to free bus rides for women and better facilities in government schools and hospitals.

This was also reflected on the ground before the elections when the poor appeared happy with the government’s welfare schemes and reposed faith in Kejriwal. However, the middle class appeared disenchanted over the lack of governance and developmental projects in the city.
Along with Dalits and jhuggi jhopdi residents, Muslims, who account for about 13% of Delhi’s 1.55 crore voters, played a key role in ensuring the AAP’s sweep in 2015 and 2020, when the party bagged 67 and 62 seats out of 70, respectively.

How Dalits voted

Of the 12 SC-reserved seats, AAP won Ambedkar Nagar, Sultanpur Majra, Patel Nagar, Karol Bagh, Kondli, Deoli, Seemapuri and Gokulpuri. The BJP won from the reserved seats of Trilokpuri (by just 392 votes), Mangol Puri, Bawana, and Madipur.

The BJP fielded 14 Dalit candidates in the elections with the tickets of two non-reserved constituencies of Matia Mahal and Ballimaran also going to Dalits. But this gesture does not seem to have cut ice with the larger Dalit population, with the party losing both Matia Mahal and Ballimaran by huge margins.

Ground reports ahead of the polls suggested that Dalits were largely suspicious of the BJP and a section was also unhappy with the party over the issue of Constitution and the alleged threat the party poses to reservation. A majority of Delhi’s Dalit population is Jatav who identify with B R Ambedkar and feels more strongly about the Constitution and reservation. In contrast, the AAP’s schemes for the poor, a class to which most Dalits in the city belong, appeared to have become a universal hit among Dalits.

— With inputs from Asad Rehman