UP’s Ghosi bypoll the first round in INDIA-BJP battle, Dalit votes hold the key

That this bypoll is not business as usual is apparent from not only the SP chief’s presence there on Tuesday — Akhilesh faced flak last year after the party lost its strongholds Azamgarh and Rampur following his no-show during the bypoll campaign — but also that the party’s secretary general Prof Ram Gopal Yadav and national general secretary Shivpal Yadav have been camping there. Yadav addressed small public meetings in areas dominated by Bhumihars and Rajbhars on Sunday. Shivpal has also been addressing meetings in the constituency. An SP leader in Mau district, where the constituency is located, said, “More than a dozen party MLAs from adjoining districts are moving around in Ghosi and reaching out to voters of different castes.”

For the BJP, a worrying sign is the perceptible anger against Chauhan because he has frequently changed parties. “The public in general is upset with him because he changed parties frequently. As SP MLA, he did nothing in the constituency. Earlier, as a minister in the BJP government, he had a poor connection with the public,” said a local BJP leader.

The BJP functionary said the party had deployed the organisational prowess at its disposal, including ministers and allies such as the NISHAD Party and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), to counter the anti-incumbency Chauhan is facing. More than a dozen ministers have already travelled to Ghosi. Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak and ministers Jitin Prasada and A K Sharma addressed a “prabuddha sammelan” there on Monday while BJP state general secretary (organisation) Dharampal Singh reached Ghosi during the day for the third time since the bypoll was announced to review poll management. On Sunday, Cabinet minister and Other Backward Classes (OBC) leader Swatantra Dev Singh campaigned in villages, visiting agricultural fields.

Ghosi dynamics

Sudhakar Singh, who belongs to the Rajput community, contested against Chauhan in the 2019 bypoll too — it became necessary after Phagu Chauhan vacated the constituency following his appointment as Bihar governor — and lost by just 1,758 votes. The BSP and the Congress both contested the bypoll back then. While the BSP candidate, from the Muslim community, polled 50,775 votes, the Congress candidate, from the Yadav community, polled 11,624 votes. In 2022, Chauhan contested on an SP ticket and he sailed through comfortably by a 22,216-vote margin.

Of the 4.37 lakh voters in Ghosi, 90,000 are Muslims, 60,000 Dalits, and 77,000 upper castes — 45,000 Bhumihars, 16,000 Rajputs, and 6,000 Brahmins. With the Congress and the BSP not in the fray, the Muslim votes in the constituency are likely to go to the SP but the Dalit votes will be up for grabs, making the contest for this group of voters a crucial one. The SP is also hoping that fielding a Rajput candidate will help it dent the BJP’s upper caste vote bank.

The BJP has deployed its Dalit MPs and ministers for canvassing. These leaders are focusing on the Adityanath government’s welfare schemes that have benefitted Dalits too. “In the prevailing equation, we are in the fight and can win if the upper castes and a section of Dalits support us. If the SP wins, it will send a message from Ghosi that the INDIA bloc can defeat the NDA. Hence, the party is not taking any chance and Akhilesh Yadav himself will campaign here,” said a district leader of the Opposition party.

SP spokesperson Rajendra Chaudhary said, “The SP is contesting this bypoll to defeat the BJP and protect democracy and the Constitution. Other Opposition parties are supporting us and the result will have a message for Lok Sabha polls.”

Last year, the SP lost the Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha by-elections and the Gola Gokarannath and Rampur Assembly bypolls. At the time, the SP’s allies and even some party leaders criticised Akhilesh for not campaigning during by-elections. During the Mainpuri Lok Sabha bypoll later in the year, Akhilesh camped in the constituency of his father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav for over a month to ensure the victory of his wife Dimple Yadav. The Rampur Assembly bypoll was also held along with it and when the SP chief’s focus on Mainpuri was questioned, he addressed a rally in Rampur. But it did not matter as the BJP defeated the SP, wresting control of what was once a traditional bastion of the Opposition party.