D K Shivakumar’s gamble: Why Karnataka Deputy CM is talking about contesting Assembly bypoll on JD(S) turf

“There is an opportunity to develop Channapatna in the same way I have developed Kanakapura (his current constituency). I am discussing with the local leaders and voters, and will make a decision on contesting later,” Shivakumar added.

The jury is still out on whether the state Congress chief is merely floating an idea to test the political waters of Channapatna or whether he is seriously considering taking a huge political risk in Mandya that is not only a JD(S) bastion but is also seeing a rising BJP.

However, the political context is ripe for Shivakumar’s proposition. The Congress managed to only get nine of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the recent Lok Sabha polls.

Shivakumar suffered a personal loss, with his brother DK Suresh losing from the family bastion of Bengaluru Rural to Kumaraswamy’s brother-in-law C N Manjunath who contested on a BJP ticket. In this context, the Channapatna battle could help the Deputy CM win back lost ground and strengthen his chances for the CM’s chair.

Shivakumar also aspires to be recognised as an alternative Vokkaliga leader to former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy who have nurtured a base within the community through the JD(S) over the years. Channapatna, which is part of the Mandya region and has a huge Vokkaliga population, could be crucial to that end.

Why Vokkaliga belt is important for Shivakumar

Shivakumar’s political standing was elevated after leading the Congress to a resounding win in the Assembly polls last year. The Congress won 39 of the 61 seats in the Vokkaliga belt in south Karnataka, including six of the seven Assembly seats in Mandya. This was a massive jump from the 17 seats the party won in the region in 2018.

However, within 18 months came the Lok Sabha losses. Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in south Karnataka, the Congress won only Hassan. In 2019 too, the party had one seat in the region: Bengaluru Rural. The Lok Sabha election results suggest that the new JD(S)-BJP alliance in Karnataka has become a potent counterforce to the Congress.

The Congress’s recent losses in south Karnataka are also believed to have strengthened Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s position and weakened Shivakumar, boosting the morale of several Congress leaders aspiring to be Deputy CMs or CM if Siddaramaiah decides to step down in the middle of the tenure.

Shivakumar’s gamble, if allowed by the Congress high command, could involve getting into the contest himself or fielding Suresh in Channapatna. He could also vacate his own safe seat of Kanakapura for his brother if he successfully contests the bypoll.

The JD(S) is reported to be considering fielding Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil in a third attempt at electoral success while the BJP’s front-runner is former minister C P Yogeshwar, a local strongman whom Kumaraswamy defeated in 2023 and in the past has joined hands with Shivakumar to defeat JD(S) candidates in the region.

After Shivakumar’s remarks, Kumaraswamy said, “The Deputy CM who has not stepped into Channapatna even once since coming to power has developed a sudden fondness for the region. He is talking about the development of Channapatna. People will decide about their love for Channapatna.”

Yogeshwar, who is now an MLC, said, “He (Shivakumar) is embarking on an impossible mission by trying to win Channapatna to become the CM. He can begin a new phase in his political career from Channapatna or his career could end in Channapatna as well. Let him contest. He is now the Deputy CM of the state. He is in the evening of his political career. He knows it. He has seen many ups and downs in his political career.”

Responding to the BJP leader, Shivakumar said people would decide if he was nearing the end of his political career or not. “I am from the region, I have asked the voters for support, I have asked them to strengthen me. I am not forcing them. They will support me if they have confidence in me,” he said.

Alongside Channapatna, Shiggaon and Sandur will witness bypolls on account of the Lok Sabha victories of their sitting MLAs Basavaraj Bommai and Congress leader E Tukaram, respectively.