Battle for Rajasthan: As BJP wields law-order weapon, Cong govt is armed with numbers

And an indicator. The exigency to counter the Manipur heat apart, as a confident Gehlot rolls out showstopper welfare schemes ahead of the elections, the BJP is going to make law and order – and especially crimes against women – one of its major rallying points in Rajasthan.

Even videos of old cases are being re-circulated to attack the Congress government in the state, with the BJP quickly realising the dynamic potential of the issue, with one heinous case enough to change perceptions.

The issue of women safety also works for the BJP since it has a strong woman leader in the state to front the same, in the form of Vasundhara Raje, a two-term CM. Raje also has a following among the women in the state.

However, the BJP has diluted brand Raje and does not seem inclined as of now to play her up in the context of crimes against women.

The Gehlot government has been countering the BJP attack by showcasing its quick action in sexual assault cases, especially since the 2019 Thanghazi gang rape of a woman in front of her husband, when the BJP had accused the Gehlot government of suppressing the case due to the coming Lok Sabha elections.

Gehlot had responded with stricter measures and schemes to control crimes, such as ensuring mandatory registration of FIRs.

If the BJP now cites a rise in the number of cases against women, the Gehlot government says it is precisely because it has ensured that each such incident is registered by the police.

As per the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data for 2018, when Gehlot came to power, Rajasthan stood fifth among states in crimes against women (registered under IPC and other laws), behind Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal.

After 2019, and the change regarding mandatory registration of FIRs, Rajasthan shot up to the second spot, and retained it in 2020 and 2021. UP still remains at the top, though the state also has nearly thrice the population of Rajasthan.

IPS (retired) B L Soni, who was Additional DG (Crime) and then DG (Crime) between December 2018 and July 2020, told The Indian Express that earlier, the premium was on not registering FIR. “If you ‘reduced’ crime, you were appreciated. Now the reduction of crime is questioned. If you don’t register (an FIR), you are pulled up.”

The government even initiated departmental proceedings and suspended several SHOs when it came to light that they had not registered a case.

It also implemented programmes such as Operation Disha, Suraksha Sakhi Yojana, and Action Against Women Related Crime and Awareness for Justice (AAWAJ), as well as set up Women Help Desks, woman police stations, a state-level task force aimed at women security and special investigative units to probe crimes against women, among others.

Due to these measures, as per Govind Pareek, the Additional Director (Public Relations) with the Rajasthan Police, the average time taken to investigate crimes against women in the state has fallen from 138 days in 2019 to 56 days as of 2023. In POCSO cases, it has decreased from 137 days in 2019 to 57 now, and for rape cases, from 141 days to 54.

He also points out that compared to figures for January to June, 2022, the crimes against women have declined by 1.97% this year – including rapes by 4.63% and POCSO cases by 0.14%.

Officials say that there is no major case in the state which is yet to be cracked and that the accused in such cases are usually caught within a day or two, giving the example of the hacking to death of Udaipur tailor Kanhaiyalal over a Prophet comment and, more recently, of the alleged rape and murder of a Dalit girl in Karauli, in which the accused was arrested within 48 hours.

The BJP re-pivot to law and order issues also follows its failure to catch the public imagination on other matters it has tried against the Gehlot government.

First, corruption. So far, no major corruption issue has rocked the Gehlot government, though the BJP now seems to be counting big on the so-called “red diary” – allegedly holding incriminating details against the CM. While Modi raised this too in his latest rally, the fact that the first mention of the diary came from a minister sacked by Gehlot, who has not been able to give a constant account of it, means the Congress is not too worried.

Gehlot’s brother Agrasen Gehlot saw raids by Central agencies while his son Vaibhav was named in an FIR over an alleged fraud of Rs 6.8 crore. In Agrasen’s case, the Congress has been pointing out that the allegations date to 2007-2009, and that the case was being “unnecessarily resurrected”. In the case of Vaibhav, the complainant has dropped the case. The raids against Gehlot’s aides such as Dharmendra Rathore and Rajiv Arora, too, have gone nowhere.

Second, anti-incumbency. Rajasthan is known to change its government every five years. However, this time, Gehlot is seen to be bucking this trend, with whatever anti-incumbency his government is facing, mainly directed against his MLAs. A reason for this is the free hand given to MLAs by the CM since they helped secure his government.

Third, policy. This is an area where Gehlot clearly leads, having launched and implemented several welfare schemes and laws covering almost every demographic in the state. The gains are reaching the designated beneficiaries, barring cases here and there.

Fourth, factionalism. The Congress has been caught throughout this term in a tussle between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot. But even as the Congress seems to have finally set its house in order, in time for the elections, the BJP is as much a house divided in Rajasthan. Pilot’s attack on the BJP, for example, over the “red diary”, despite it being raised by his loyalist, sent the right signals.

Fifth, farmers. The BJP has been trying to woo them over, but the Congress government seems ahead in the perception battle. Gehlot has highlighted that his government has waived loans “worth Rs 15,000 crore of 21 lakh farmers from all cooperative banks under it”, and urged the Centre to do the same for nationalised banks.

Sixth, ERCP. The Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project, to provide drinking water to 13 districts, is another issue Modi has spoken about in his speeches. But the Congress has been more aggressive on it for a long time, accusing the Centre of deliberately ignoring the project to punish its government, and seeking that the project be given national status and the Centre bear the costs.

The Congress also keeps pointing out that Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is from Rajasthan and that all the 25 Lok Sabha MPs from the state were elected on a BJP ticket (including then BJP ally Hanuman Beniwal), and yet they were unable to get ERCP national project status.

Now, as the BJP turns its formidable horsepower to law and order and women issues, the Congress challenge is to not let it gallop away with the narrative.

In January 2022, the BJP had been able to draw public outrage over the rape of a minor girl in Alwar; police later found it to be a hit-and-run incident. Last year, the BJP whipped up a campaign around a Dalit woman’s alleged rape in Dholpur by Thakur men. It turned out to be a case of assault and of an ongoing feud between two families.

The Gehlot government’s hope is that people realise it is not crimes that are increasing in the state, but their registration, and that this actually implies an improvement in the long run.

But, that is not an easy sell – especially in the short run.