In the shifting sands of Maharashtra politics, the downturn in the fortunes of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena has presented the NCP, its Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partner, a golden opportunity. Not only had the 2022 Shiv Sena split snatched the coveted chief ministership from Uddhav, it had also reduced his party to number four in terms of representatives in the Maharashtra Assembly, and meant the Shiv Sena (UBT) lost the possibility of taking over as the Leader of the Opposition (LoP), a role that went to the NCP instead, with Ajit Pawar slipping into it enthusiastically. Now, with the Election Commission (EC) recognising the Shinde group as the official Shiv Sena, and allowing them to use the Sena poll symbol of bow and arrow, Uddhav's cup of sorrow is overflowing. Although the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena (UBT) have pledged to remain united and collectively contest all forthcoming elections under the MVA banner, the loss of name and symbol could hamper the expansion plans of Uddhav's party. With all parties looking ahead to the 2024 elections to the Lok Sabha and the Maharashtra Assembly, of the three MVA partners, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP is ahead of both the Congress and Uddhav Sena in organisational strategy and programmes. It's aggressively pursuing an outreach plan focused on the youth, women and farmers, for which, weekly programmes are being organised. State chief Jayant Patil has appealed to NCP workers across Maharashtra to devote at least a few hours for NCP work every weekend. While Sharad Pawar is extensively touring the state to address rural agriculture and economic issues, youth leader and MLA Rohit Pawar is holding interactive sessions to tap into GenNext. LoP Ajit Pawar aggressively leads an attack on the ruling BJP-Shinde Sena inside the House and at regular public rallies. But NCP leaders know they have to tread carefully. Hence, they have been cautious with their statements since the EC ruling. Pawar Senior said, "It won't make any difference. Indira Gandhi faced a similar problem when the Congress's poll symbol was changed from the 'cow and calf' to the 'hand'. But people accepted the new symbol, and the same will happen with Thackeray." Even Ajit Pawar wondered, "What was the EC's haste in giving the decision? Everybody knows Bal Thackeray founded the Shiv Sena. Uddhav will retain his Sainiks' support." The NCP will work on a two-pronged strategy to exploit any pro-Uddhav sympathy to consolidate its own foothold on territory vacated due to the Shiv Sena split. State NCP president Jayant Patil has often spoken in public about the party's goal of reaching 100 seats in the state Assembly. The party reckons that to win the CM post, not only does it have to fight the BJP-Shinde Sena NDA, but also lead the MVA. While the Congress is caught in an in-house power tussle, and Thackeray is fighting for survival, the NCP has a lot of scope, of making deep inroads beyond its bastion in West Maharashtra into Marathwada and North Maharashtra. Shortly after the NCP was founded when Sharad Pawar left the Congress, it came third in the 1999 Assembly elections with 58 seats and a 22.6 per cent vote share. The Congress led with 75 seats and 27.2 per cent vote share. With 69 seats and 17.33 per cent votes, the then-united Shiv Sena came third, followed by the BJP at fourth with 56 seats and 14.54 per cent vote share. In the two decades that followed, the roles have been reversed. Now, the BJP is the leader of the pack. At the 2019 Assembly polls, it got 105 seats with 25.75 vote share, the Shiv Sena 56 seats (16.41%), NCP 54 (16.71%) and the Congress 44 (15.87%). What has remained constant is Shiv Sena's vote share, which has never exceeded 18 per cent, belying the hopes of NCP's political managers when the party was launched in 1999 — who believed they would be able to grab a sizeable amount of the Sena's GenNext vote base, especially in Marathwada. That did not happen partly due to a decision taken by Sharad Pawar on January 14, 1994, when he was in the Congress and the CM of Maharashtra. Championing the cause of Dalits, he decided to rename Marathwada University after Dr B R Ambedkar. A section of Marathas disapproved of the move and aligned with the then-militant Shiv Sena and underwrote a sharp rise in the fortunes of Bal Thackeray's party. That regret has remained with the NCP. In a recent interview to a TV channel, Ajit Pawar rued that the NCP has always had to play second fiddle to the Congress, saying, "In 2004, the NCP had 71 seats, more than the Congress with 69. Yet, our seniors gave Congress the CM post, which I believe was a mistake." But now, with the Shiv Sena (UBT) pushed to a corner by the EC decision, the undivided Shiv Sena's 17-18 per cent vote share is up for grabs. There are 55-60 seats where the Shiv Sena has been locked in a direct contest with the NCP over the last two decades. Finally, the NCP can hope to strike hard in these constituencies to enhance its electoral fortunes. A senior NCP functionary said, "The BJP may have the most seats in the state, but our rural base remains intact. We're neck-and-neck with the BJP in gram panchayats and zilla parishads. Our challenge is to increase their tally from the existing 56 seats to 90+." Given Maharashtra's history of split-verdicts and coalition governments for decades, any party with 90-100 seats stands a chance to form government and keep the CM chair.
