PUTTING a spoke in the Samajwadi Party's well-laid plans for the coming Mainpuri Lok Sabha bypoll, the BJP Tuesday announced Raghuraj Singh Shakya as its candidate. A former SP MP, Shakya was a political protege of the late SP founder-leader and Mainpuri MP Mulayam Singh Yadav. He is also considered close to Mulayam's brother Shivpal Singh Yadav. While this is set to split the Yadav votes in the seat that were earlier expected to go entirely to SP candidate Dimple Yadav, Shakya may additionally get the backing of supporters of the ruling BJP, as well as of voters belonging to the Shakya community, who are in substantial numbers in Mainpuri. Having kept family members in the background during the 2022 Assembly elections, SP president Akhilesh Yadav had brought in wife Dimple, the former MP from Kannauj, for the bypoll, so as to take no chances in the seat considered Mulayam's bastion and won by him five times (2019, 2014, 2009, 2004 and 1996). His death necessitated the bypoll, to be held on December 5, and Akhilesh has been invoking Mulayam's legacy to appeal to voters. In the wake of Mulayam's death, Akhilesh and Shivpal were seen as making an effort to bury their hatchet, and inching closer. Now, the SP nomination to Dimple from Mainpuri, which Shivpal was reportedly eyeing, and ticket to Shakya by the BJP, have put paid to that. While Shivpal is the sitting MLA from Jaswantnagar, due to its association with Mulayam, Mainpuri holds a special place in the SP's politics. Shakya has been twice elected as an SP MP – in 1999 and 2004, both times from Yadav-dominated Etawah. He had sided with Shivpal when the feud in the Yadav family started in 2016 and the party split into two factions. When he floated the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (PSP-Lohia) in 2018, Shivpal had appointed Shakya as its UP general secretary and later elevated him as vice-president. A PSP-L leader said that ahead of the recent 2022 Assembly elections, Shakya had figured in the talks between Shivpal and Akhilesh for a seat arrangement. “However, after Akhilesh agreed to back only Shivpal (who contested on the SP symbol), in February, Shakya joined the BJP,” the leader said, adding that with Shakya seen as still close to Shivpal, his candidature was set to create a challenge for the SP. The BJP has a decent support base in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency. Of the five Assembly segments falling within the constituency – Mainpuri, Bhongaon, Kishani, Karhal and Jaswantnagar – the SP won three and the BJP two in the recent Assembly elections. Of the three SP winners, one was Akhilesh from Karhal, and another Shivpal from Jaswantnagar. Mainpuri's community wise break-up includes more than 5 lakh Yadavs, around 3.5 lakh Shakyas (an OBC sub-class), other OBC groups such as Saini, Maurya, Lodh, 2 lakh-odd Dalits, and over 70,000 Muslims, with upper castes making up the rest. Considering the influence of the Shakya vote, the SP had appointed former minister Alok Shakya as its Mainpuri district president ahead of the bypoll, replacing Devendra Yadav. The names declared by the BJP for the other bypolls to be held in UP were on more expected lines. From Khatauli, it has fielded Rajkumari Saini, a former village pradhan and the wife of Vikram Singh Saini, the sitting MLA who had to step down following his conviction in a case related to the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. A BJP leader said there were hints that Saini would rebel if his wife was not given the ticket. Rajkumari will face the RLD's Madan Bhaiyya, who is backed by its ally SP. This is the first time Madan Bhaiyaa is contesting from Khatauli, having earlier fought twice from Loni seat in Ghaziabad and lost. RLD UP state president Ramashish Rai said: “Madan Bhaiyya is a popular Gujjar leader of western UP and he has influence in Khatauli.” In the 2022 Assembly elections, the BJP's Saini had won from Khatauli with 45.34% of the votes against 38% votes for the RLD's Rajpal Singh Saini. However, before that, in 2012 and 2002, the RLD had won the seat. Saini's disqualification had come after RLD president Jayant Chaudhary wrote to UP Assembly Speaker Satish Mahana asking why Vikram Saini had not been disqualified despite conviction in the riots case, though SP MLA Azam Khan had faced immediate action following a hate speech case conviction. The third bypoll in UP is for the Rampur Assembly seat vacated by Azam. From here, the BJP has fielded Akash Saxena, who contested against the senior SP leader in the recent Assembly elections and got 34.6% votes against Azam's 59.71%. A BJP leader said Saxena was a natural choice for the ticket. “He is the man responsible for almost half the cases against Azam Khan's family.” Saxena, who runs an export business, claims to be behind 30 of the FIRs lodged against Khan, and says that others came forward to file complaints against the SP leader at his behest. The SP is yet to declare its candidate from Rampur. Given the strained ties between Akhilesh and Azam Khan, there is a lot of interest in who the party will pick.
