After counting in Maharashtra on Saturday, the Mahayuti is headed for a landslide victory in what is a resounding reversal of its recent setback in the Lok Sabha polls, in which it won just 17 of the state’s 48 parliamentary seats. The ruling alliance is set to return to power with a considerable mandate – with leads in 236 seats in the 288-member Assembly – having flipped at least 117 Assembly segments it had lost to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) candidates just months ago in the Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP won nine seats in the Lok Sabha polls, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena got seven, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP just one, translating to a total 125 Assembly segments, well short of the majority mark of 145 in the House. The MVA won 30 Lok Sabha seats – 13 by the Congress, nine by the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), and eight by the Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP) – putting the alliance ahead in 153 Assembly segments.

However, these Lok Sabha trends do not appear to have carried into the Assembly polls. With an impressive strike rate of 133 seats won from 149 contested, the BJP improved on its 2019 Assembly tally of 105 and charted a comeback from its 2024 Lok Sabha Assembly segment-level tally of 79. The Shiv Sena improved from 40 Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha polls to 57 Assembly seats this time, as did the NCP from six to 41. Compared to the Lok Sabha polls, the Mahayuti this time retained all but seven of the 125 segments it had led – the MVA managed to flip these seats.

The Mahayuti was able to flip 117 segments that Opposition parties had won in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP alone was responsible for 58 of these flips, followed by the Shiv Sena at 31 and the NCP at 27. A minor ally also flipped a seat.

A breakdown of these flips shows that the BJP wrested 28 Assembly segments from the Congress, 18 from the Sena (UBT), and 10 from the NCP(SP). While the NCP flipped 13 segments from the NCP(SP), it flipped seven and five segments from the Sena (UBT) and the Congress, respectively. The Shiv Sena flipped 14 segments from the Sena (UBT), 14 from the Congress, and two from the NCP(SP). Another seven seats were flipped by the Mahayuti, including two from the AIMIM and five from Independents.

The MVA, meanwhile, has leads in 49 Assembly seats, including those won by allies Samajwadi Party (SP), CPI(M), and the Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWPI). But among these wins are just nine segments it had failed to win the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The MVA not only failed to retain the seats where it led in the recent Lok Sabha polls, it was unable to capitalise on the anti-incumbency and translate its campaign efforts into more wins.