How BJP defeated BJP and why Congress needs to do more to secure its hard-won victory

Well before that result came in, during the election campaign, there were signs on the ground that “the Lingayats” in Hubli-Dharwad may not follow the leader, and that they were not impervious to anti-incumbency.

In this constituency, in which residents of Hubli, also the state’s second largest city, get water only once in nearly 10 days, and from where the young migrate in droves to Bengaluru and other Indian cities in search of jobs and opportunities, anti-incumbency was directed against the six-term MLA and the BJP gained from the voters’ rebuke to Shettar. But elsewhere, the party bore the more direct brunt of anti-incumbency.

To be sure, in a state where caste has a deeply entrenched cultural and local life and a long history of politicisation, the “Lingayat vote”, as much as the “Vokkaliga vote”, is a reality. The story goes that the Lingayats became alienated from the Congress in the late 1990s and shifted after the implosion of the Janata Party to the BJP. But it is all too easy for parties, the BJP as well as the Congress, to imagine a predictable herd-like behaviour which does not exist on the ground, but which is convenient for strategists.

Quite simply, the BJP’s victory in Hubli-Dharwad cannot be read as proof of its traditional votebank’s unwavering loyalty, any more than its defeats elsewhere in the state can be unquestioningly blamed on the Lingayats’ supposed decision, after the sidelining of Yediyurappa or the exit of Shettar and Laxman Savadi, to desert the party.

What is undeniable is that, across caste lines, there was anti-incumbency. Despite voter cynicism about corruption, many said that on the watch of the Basavaraj Bommai government, new lows had been reached.

Earlier, bribes would be paid but the work would be done, some said, but now corruption had become “collection”, and officials would only and unabashedly pocket the money. In a state where memories and legacies of public works go back to the princely states, several others connected the dots between corruption and public goods of lower quality. They pointed to the new road that became potholed too soon, or the highway that got waterlogged after its inauguration.

The BJP, then, must face the fact that it lost because its government did not perform, and was not seen to perform by the people. And the Congress must know that its new government cannot depend on social engineering sums alone. Its AHINDA alliance – backward castes, SC/STs, Muslims — has held together in this southern state even as the party lost its footing amid backward caste mobilisations in the north. But that alone will not be enough for it to secure Karnataka’s hard-won victory.

And for those in the BJP who are pointing to “dilution of ideology” as reason for its Karnataka defeat, among other things, by the party opening its doors to leaders not groomed in the Sangh Parivar school of politics, a reality check from Karnataka’s women voters, across constituencies.

Even on the college campus in the coastal district where the BJP has a long history of successful Hindutva mobilisations, many young women said that they support the Modi-BJP but disagree with its government’s hijab ban (that culminated from events set in motion in a college in Udupi). Because “it is their (Muslims’) choice”. And “they also need to study”. And because “Why should we object if they feel safer in it?” These sentiments found echoes across campuses in Mysore, Mangalore and Hubli.

If the BJP cannot afford to turn a deaf ear to these young women, the Congress would also do well to pay heed.

The Congress broke a long evasiveness on Hindu-Muslim issues by proposing a ban on the Bajrang Dal in its manifesto, in which it bracketed the outfit with the PFI. But if Karnataka’s voter put a hijab caveat in her support to the BJP, she may not give a free pass to the Congress either. How it acts on the hijab order and its Bajrang Dal posturing will also affect its credibility.

Last, but not least, the Bharat Jodo Yatra. In the reigning tradition of “winner takes all”, the Congress will claim that everything it did in Karnataka was right, including and especially the yatra that passed through the state and that was led by Rahul Gandhi.

But conversations with voters across south Karnataka, the coastal region and North Karnataka also showed that the Yatra had barely made a mark. It would have surely energised Congress cadres, and that may have played a role in the party’s victory. Among voters, however, young and old, it’s not his 22-day yatra in the state but what Rahul and his party do with the 136-seat tally that will, against a formidable rival, determine their trajectory.