INDIA alliance’s J&K conundrum: National Conference wants it all in Valley, unwilling to cede ground

In 2019, the NC won the three Lok Sabha seats in the Valley — Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag. Omar’s remarks at an INDIA meeting in Delhi on September 13 show that the NC wants to contest all three again.

The PDP had indicated that it was ready to leave Srinagar and Baramulla the NC. In fact, at the INDIA meeting in Mumbai in August, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti had left it to NC president Farooq Abdullah to decide on seat sharing, as a concession to his seniority.

After the meeting in Delhi earlier this month, Omar told reporters, “I have only said that when you are talking about seat sharing, there should be a formula … If our goal is to defeat the BJP, we should have an alliance on those seats where BJP hopes to win. I do not think the BJP is getting any seats from Kashmir. I have only put forth my viewpoint.”

The NC leader stood his ground saying, “Should I not put forth my viewpoint? I have given the viewpoint of my party and it is my right. I have not forced my opinion on anyone. I have not walked out of or boycotted the meeting.”

While the PDP has put its displeasure at this across, the Congress might also put its foot down, as it can claim to have a presence in the Kashmir Valley as well as the Muslim-majority regions of Jammu. The two Lok Sabha seats in the region — Jammu and Udhampur — are held by the BJP at present.

In 2014, the last time Assembly elections were held in the erstwhile state, this was the break-up of the three parties’ seats:

• PDP 28 seats: 25 from Valley, three from Muslim-majority regions of Jammu
• NC 15 seats: 12 from Valley, two from Jammu’s Hindu belt (who later joined the BJP), one from Muslim areas
• Congress 12 seats: Elected from the Valley and the Muslim areas of Jammu

An NC leader reasoned, “All the years, we have been fighting against each other. Even though we have some common goals now, it is not easy to convince your cadres and voters to vote for a party that you have told them is our enemy. We know the BJP has no space in the Valley even if we fight against each other (PDP and NC). So it will not impact our larger goal of keeping the BJP out. I don’t think it is any form of betrayal to the people.”

Compared to the Valley, the NC and PDP have fewer stakes in Jammu, even though the BJP is believed to have lost ground in mainland Jammu, which it had swept in 2014. This leaves the Congress as the only viable alternative in the region, though it is hamstrung by the absence of a strong leadership.

As per Omar’s formula, the NC would demand a partnership in Jammu to defeat the BJP, while not making any concessions in Kashmir. Many PDP leaders see Omar’s remarks as an attempt to sideline it from any electoral equation in the Valley and a betrayal of the “coalition dharma”.

Another PDP leader refused to condemn its ally in such unequivocal terms. “I will not say it is a betrayal but it will be a sad thing. If we take separate ways even at this point, what is the political message that we are trying to send? And by going alone what are we going to achieve? Even if elections are held, we will be running a government that is worse than a municipality. All the powers lie with the Centre.”