Election Results 2024 Live Analysis: How NC-Cong won first polls in J&K in 10 years, BJP bounced back in Haryana

In her debut political contest, Olympian Vinesh Phogat won the Julana seat by 6,015 votes. She is the first ever woman candidate having won from this seat. Considered a Jat-dominated constituency, and the sentiments in favour of Vinesh after she was disqualified in Paris Olympics, Congress fielded her as its nominee. JJP’s Amarjeet Dhanda who had won in 2019 from this seat finished a distant fourth.

Reacting to her win, Vinesh said: “It is the victory of truth. All those who have voted for me shall be happy that we won from Julana. I will always respect the mandate that people gave me. I shall always try to keep faith and love of people of Julana intact. I am a sportsperson and shall work for the sportspersons of my State and all the people of my constituency”. --Reports Varinder Bhatia

Facing huge anti-incumbency in Haryana, farmer and wrestler anger over long-lasting protests and discontent over the Agniveer scheme, the BJP spread out its bets in the state. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi pitched in with big rallies, though he addressed just four against 10 in 2019, there was equal emphasis on local leaders and the consolidation of anti-Jat votes.

The Congress’s overarching emphasis on Jat vote appears to have rallied the other communities against the party. Even the Dalit vote, which the Congress had been banking on after its success in wooing them in the Lok Sabha polls, appears to have not deserted the BJP completely.

Read Liz Mathew's latest report for more.

Setting its house in order by replacing its senior leaders with new faces to overcome anti-incumbency factor and helped by lacklustre campaign by the Congress, BJP outperformed its 2014 performance wiping out Congress from Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Reasi and Udhampur districts.

Of the 26 seats, falling in these areas, BJP had so far been declared elected in four constituencies - Udhampur East, Chenani, Basohli and Jammu West. --Reports Arun Sharma

Leading in only Rajouri (ST) of the 43 Assembly constituencies, Congress stands wiped out in Jammu province. However, its leading margin from nearest BJP rival Vibodh Gupta is only around 2,500. There is still two rounds of counting left in the final outcome of the results.

In Jammu South's R S Pura constituency, former minister Raman Bhalla, who was locked in a keenly contested electoral battle, was trailing from BJP’s national secretary Narender Singh by 325 votes. Meanwhile, BJP’s R S Pathania has been declared elected from Udhampur East by a margin of 2,349 votes. —Reports Naveed Iqbal

The Congress that was confident of returning to power in Haryana by ousting the BJP government after a decade was on the edge Tuesday as the BJP crossed the halfway mark in early trends, upsetting the grand old party’s calculations.

Though Congress leaders argued it was too early to count it out as only one-third of the votes had been counted, it was far from the sweep they had expected.

Behind the scenes, a blame game is waiting to begin, according to party insiders. The party will now be back to the drawing board. And there are many questions to be answered: was it politically wise to put all the eggs in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda basket, how did the open tug of war between the Hoodas and Kumari Selja for the Chief Minister’s post play out, were there lacunae in the selection of candidates (Hooda’s detractors have been claiming that he cornered a lion’s share of the tickets) and was the party overconfident and complacent?

Catch all the insights in this report by Manoj C J.

PDP's Iltija Mufti, next in line for the Mufti family in J&K’s politics, was the first to concede defeat as results rolled out on Tuesday. She was trailing against NC’s Bashir Ahmad Veeri by just over 4000 votes. This was Iltija’s first electoral plunge from the Bijbehara seat that has previously been represented by her grandfather and former J&K chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed.

In a hard fought campaign, Iltija invoked the party’s legacy in “fighting for the rights of the people of J&K” and how they paid the price for their alliance with the BJP in 2014. The party has long argued that the voters in Jammu had put their weight behind the BJP in Jammu, in the 2014 elections, and that mandate deserved to be respected. Thus, paving the way for the PDP-BJP coalition.

A fierce critic of the BJP, Iltija was elevated as media incharge for her mother and party president Mehbooba Mufti last year. While Mufti remained steadfast on her word not to contest assembly polls with J&K as a UT, the party fielded Iltija in this election. --Reports Naveed Iqbal

Though BJP appears to be on way to outperform its 2014 performance when it had won 25 seats and formed government in coalition with the PDP, trends suggest that it will be difficult for it to re-enter corridors of power this time.

While the NC is leading in 42 constituencies and Congress in 10, the BJP was ahead in 26 segments. The PDP was leading in five, J&K People’s Conference (2), and independents (7).

In the 95 member house including five to be nominated by the Lt Governor, one needs 48 members to form the government.

The Indian National Congress is heading for a clean sweep in Muslim dominated belts, including Nuh, Ferozepur Jhirka and Punahana. While Nuh riots accused Mamman Khan is leading by 51780 votes after eight out of 19 rounds of counting, Aftab Ahmed is leading by 28973 votes, and Mohammad Ilyas is leading by 21778 votes.

The BJP's candidates in all three constituencies are trailing. In Nuh, BJP's Sanjay Singh is on a distant third position while INLD's Tahir Hussain is on second spot. In Ferozepur Jhirka, BJP's Naseem Ahmed is on third spot while INLD's Mohammad Habib is on second spot. In Punahana, BJP's Mohd Aizaz Khan is on a distant third spot while Independent Rahish Khan is on the second spot. -- Reports Varinder Bhatia

National Conference has won the first seat. Its Gurez candidate Nazir Ahmad Khan has defeated BJP’s Faqeer Mohammad Khan by over 1000 votes. The official announcement, however, is pending. -- Reports Bashaarat Masood

Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) is heading for a complete wipeout, with Dushyant Chautala in sixth position in Uchana.

Dushyant Chautala, who emerged as a kingmaker in 2019 assembly polls by winning 10 seats has himself slipped to sixth spot in Uchana Kalan, the constituency that he considered his stronghold. Congress' Brijendra Singh is leading by a margin of 3177 votes over BJP's Devender Chatar Bhuj Attri, while Dushyant has barely got 2420 votes after 4/16 rounds of counting.

Dushyant's brother Digvijay Chautala is also on third spot in Dabwali where Congress' Amit Sihag is leading by 5076 votes after 2 out of 16 rounds of counting, while INLD's Aditya Devilal is on second position. JJP's another prominent candidate Amarjeet Dhanda in Julana is on fourth spot and has got barely 517 votes after four rounds of counting. BJP's Yogesh Kumar is leading by 3641 votes in Julana over Congress' Vinesh Phogat who is on second spot. --Reports Varinder Bhatia

PDP’s Iltija Mufti who is trailing behind the National Conference’s Bashir Ahmad Veeri by over 4000 votes has accepted defeat. This comes even as only six out of twelve rounds of counting are completed.

In a post on X, Iltija said: “I accept the verdict of the people. The love and affection I received from everyone in Bijbehara will always stay with me. Gratitude to my PDP workers who worked so hard throughout this campaign."

In the valley, the National Conference has shown a stellar performance by leading on 39 seats as compared to its main rival PDP that is only leading on four assembly segments.

The National Conference has made inroads in PDP’s south Kashmir bastion as well, where the PDP is only leading in two of the 16 segments.

In the ten seats in Ahirwal belt - Rewari, Bawal, Kosli, Badshahpur, Pataudi, Ateli, Gurgaon, Nangal Chaudhary, Narnaul, Mahendragarh - BJP is leading in all except Ateli, where the BSP candidate is leading. Gurgaon MP Rao Inderjit’s daughter Arti Singh Rao is contesting in the seat.

The BJP's move to field Muslim candidates in Ferozepur Jhirka and Punahna seems to have failed to draw support from minority community as party's both the candidates are trailing at third position while Congress is leading there. Both Ferozepur Jhirka and Punahna are Muslim dominated constituencies.

Early numbers show BJP candidate Naseem Ahmed in Ferozepur Jhirka is at third position as he has got 9.86 per cent of total counted votes. Congress' Mamman Khan is leading with 77.49 per cent of total counted votes. INLD candidate Mohd Habin is in second position. In Punahana, BJP's Mohd Aizaz Khan is at third position with 2.77 per cent of total counted votes. Congress candidate Mohd Ilyas is leading with 62 per cent of total votes counted so far.

"Should the people’s mandate be against the BJP, then they should not make attempts to distort it. Raj Bhawan and the Centre should accept the verdict, as we do," says Omar Abdullah.

The former State Home Minister and senior BJP leader Anil Vij is tied in a tight contest in Ambala Cantt, a seat he has wrested six times. This time around, Vij, who openly staked claim to the top post after the BJP declared the siting CM Nayab Singh Saini as their CM face, is facing stiff completion from Congress’s Parvinder Pal Pari as well as the independent candidate and Congress rebel Chitra Sarwara.

Interestingly, Chitra, daughter of Nirmal Singh, Congress candidate from Ambala city, had come second in the 2019 assembly elections. Chitra, who rejoined Congress early this year after leaving AAP, had thrown her hat in the ring for the party ticket but was denied due to the party’s one family one ticket principle. This has made it a tight contest not just for Vij but for the Congress candidate as well. Other contenders from the seat include Indian National Lok Dal’s Onkar Singh, Aam Aadmi Party’s Raj Kaur Gill, and Jannayak Janta Party’s Avtar Singh.

Dushyant Chautala, after two rounds of counting in Uchana Kalan, has slipped to fourth position.

According to early trends (till 10 am), according to Election Commission's data, the BJP is leading in 41 seats while Congress is leading on 34 seats. INLD and BSP, each are leading on one seat, while four Independents are leading on four seats. The postal ballots counting has already been completed and it shows that Dushyant Chautala and his JJP as well as AAP are not in the contest.

So far, till 10 am, neither JJP nor AAP has not led in even a single seat.

The BJP and Congress numbers, however, are fluctuating.

The BJP has once again failed to open its account in the valley. The only seat where BJP was expecting to win - Gurez - the party candidate Faqeer Mohammad Khan is trailing by over 1500 votes to National Conference’s Nazir Ahmad Khan after two rounds of counting.

The outcome is a result of anger in the valley after the abrogation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and the tough Kashmir-policy by the centre. In fact, the political parties and independents that were tagged to be the BJP proxies have also been not able to make a strong performance in the valley.

This are changing every moment. Now, the BJP leads in 44 seats in Haryana, with Congress a close second at 41 seats.

After almost two hours of counting, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) - that was the single largest party with 28 seats in the last assembly in 2014 - is leading only on three seats - two in south Kashmir and one in north Kashmir.

This is the party’s worst performance since it was founded in 1999. In its first electoral fight in 2002, the party had won 16 seats, followed by 21 seats in 2008 and 28 seats in 2014.

In Chenani, J&K Panthers Party (India) candidate and former minister Harsh Dev Singh was trailing by 3800 votes from his cousin and BJP candidate Balwant Mankotia.

The trends show a keenly contested electoral battle between both BJP and Congress at most of the places in Jammu province where Congress rebels contesting as independents at several places were making their erstwhile party candidates to trail.

With BIP leading in 18 out of 47 constituencies in Jammu province, the BJP vice president Yudvir Sethi said that the party was hopeful of forming its government in J&K with the help of independents.

When asked whether any consultations were going on with independents, he said that “we are in touch with independents”.

“We will win nearly 35 seats, outperforming its 2014 assembly polls,” he said. The BJP had in 2014 assembly polls had won 25 seats in Jammu region and entered the corridors of power in coalition with the PDP.

In Hodal, where HPCC president Udai Bhan is contesting, Congress is ahead after the first round of counting.

In what looks like can be a big upset in Jammu and Kashmir, former chief minister and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti’s daughter Iltija Mufti is trailing in Srigufwara-Bijbehara seat. Bashir Ahmad Shah Veeri of the National Conference is leading from there.

In Ferozepur Jhirka, Congress' Mamman Khan, who is an accused in the riots case, is leading by 13,681 votes after round 2.

Observers feel the Jammu division, especially Hindu-dominated districts, will emerge as the key in the power corridors of the UT.

BJP: The party contested all 47 seats in Jammu province and is banking on the votes of the Pahari ethnic group and the Padari tribe, which were granted Scheduled Tribe (ST) status earlier this year.

Congress, NC: The Congress and NC contested 30 and 17 seats respectively in Jammu, and were engaged in “friendly fights” in four. Both parties are banking on the consolidation of Gujjar voters, who are miffed with the BJP for inducting the Paharis into the ST category and feel the move diluted political representation granted to them post the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019.

A status check at 9 am: The Congress have gone past the majority mark in both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir.

Here are five things to watch out for in the poll results:

NC-Congress alliance: The National Conference (NC) and the Congress have jointly fought the J&K Assembly elections. Both are part of the Opposition INDIA alliance at the national level. Under their seat-sharing pact, the NC contested 51 seats out of J&K’s 90 as compared to the Congress’s 32 , with both partners also opting for “friendly fights” in five other constituencies.

PDP factor: The stakes are very high in the elections for the Mehbooba Mufti-led Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In the previous Assembly polls in 2014, the PDP had emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats. The party had then forged an alliance with the BJP to form a coalition government, but the BJP withdrew its support to it in June 2018 following which J&K has been under the Central rule.

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With counting of votes for the 90 assembly seats in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir underway, it remains to be seen if Congress can pull off an upset in both the polls — in Haryana, exit polls have predicted Congress’s return to power after 10 years, and rejected BJP’s hopes for the third term. In the UT, exit polls indicate the probability of a hung assembly.