EC announces 5 Assembly bypolls in 4 states: What is at stake for key players

As per Section 151A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, the Election Commission is required to fill casual vacancies in Parliament and State Legislatures within six months. However, the EC, in consultation with the Central government, can go beyond this period if it is difficult to hold the by-election within the said period.

According to EC sources, the commission had earlier certified that it would not be holding the by-elections in the UT within six months. While the cold weather and Ramzan and Eid were cited among reasons for not holding the bypolls in March and April, the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack and the subsequent military conflict with Pakistan led to further delay.

Here are the five seats where bypolls will be held:

Ludhiana West (Punjab)

This is a high-stakes battle for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as it comes close on the heels of its defeat in Delhi and on the back of a poor performance in the Ludhiana civic polls.

In the civic body polls last year, the AAP managed to win only 41 of the 95 wards in the Ludhiana Municipal Corporation, falling short of the majority mark by seven, while the Congress and BJP won 30 and 18 seats respectively. Adding salt to the wounds was the defeat of the wives of AAP MLAs Ashok Parashar Pappi and Gurpreet Singh Gogi.

The AAP has already announced Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora as its candidate and hit the ground running, with its two senior most leaders, Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia, holding meetings and inaugurating a slew of projects.

While the BJP is likely to announce its pick in the next few days, the Congress has fielded former Punjab minister Bharat Bhushan Ashu and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which stayed away from the November 2024 bypolls in Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, Chabbewal and Barnala, has picked newcomer Parupkar Singh Ghuman. The bypoll was necessitated after Gogi “accidentally” shot himself to death in January.

Nilambur (Kerala)

The bypoll in this constituency in Wayanad was necessitated by the resignation of two-time Left Democratic Front (LDF)-backed Independent MLA P V Anvar after he fell out with Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan. This bypoll will be a litmus test for the ruling party as well as the Congress.

For the CPI(M), the bypoll is a test ahead of next year’s Assembly elections and is a chance to prove that Anvar’s exit has not dented its prospects in the constituency.

For the Congress, the bypoll is an opportunity to wrest back its traditional seat that is part of the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency held by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. The party lost Nilambur in 2016 as well as in 2021 to Anvar. It will also be the first electoral test of the newly appointed Congress state chief, Sunny Joseph

For the BJP, which has a negligible presence in the constituency, the bypoll will be a test of the organisational skills and grassroots poll management of its new chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

For Anvar, who is now in the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and has extended support to the Congress-led United Democratic Front, a victory for the Congress will ensure his bargaining power stays intact.

Kadi and Visavadar (Gujarat)

The bypolls present an opportunity for the BJP to increase its tally in the Assembly and further dent the Congress, which has been out of power for three decades. For the Congress, which has chosen Gujarat to implement its pilot project of giving more powers to its district units, the bypoll is a chance at redemption.

The Kadi bypoll was necessitated after the death of sitting BJP MLA Karsanbhai Solanki in February, while the resignation of sitting AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani necessitated the Visavadar by-election. Bhayani subsequently joined the BJP.

For the AAP, which is seeking to expand its footprint in the state, the Visavadar bypoll is a prestige battle. The party has fielded firebrand leader Gopal Italia from the seat that was once represented by former CM Keshubhai Patel.

Kaliaganj (West Bengal)

The bypoll became necessary following the death of sitting TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed in February. It comes at a time when the Trinamool Congress (TMC) government is facing controversies linked to the Supreme Court’s order upholding a Calcutta High Court order terminating the appointment of over 25,000 teachers, and the violence in Murshidabad. The party will be keen to replicate its success in last year’s bypolls in which it swept all six seats at stake, including Madarihat that it won back from the BJP.

(With inputs from ENS Ahmedabad, Thiruvananthapuram, Ludhiana & Kolkata)