As vote counting nears completion in the Erode East bypoll, the ruling DMK has surged ahead with a decisive lead, reaffirming its electoral dominance in the region. DMK candidate VC Chandhirakumar has secured 61,834 votes, placing him significantly ahead of his closest rival, M K Seethalakshmi of the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), who received 13,466 votes so far. The bypoll, necessitated by the demise of veteran Congress leader EVKS Elangovan, saw a voter turnout of 67.97 per cent, with 1,54,657 people casting their ballots. While 46 candidates were in the fray, the election turned into a two-cornered contest between the DMK and NTK of Tamil nationalist leader Seeman. The main opposition, AIADMK, and BJP jointly boycotted the election, reshaping the expected vote distribution. The DMK’s commanding performance comes as no surprise. In the 2023 bypoll, Elangovan clinched victory with a margin of 66,233 votes, defeating AIADMK’s K S Thenarassu, while NTK’s Menaka Navaneethan secured 10,827 votes. The absence of key opposition players led to speculation about potential vote transfer, particularly among the AIADMK-BJP voter base, which had collectively garnered 47,000 votes in the last Lok Sabha election in Erode East assembly constituency. VIDEO | Erode East Bypoll: DMK supporters celebrate outside counting centre in Erode as party candidate VC Chandhirakumar takes an unassailable lead of over 54,000 votes. (Full video available on PTI Videos - ) pic.twitter.com/mh3yt1sCrY — Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) February 8, 2025 Early indicators suggest that while a segment of these votes may have shifted toward Seeman’s NTK, a more significant portion has likely benefitted the DMK. Of the 47,000 AIADMK-BJP votes, an estimated one-third – or around 15,000 voters – appear to have migrated to NTK, aligning with projections that Seeman’s party could secure around 25,000 votes by the final tally. Meanwhile, the DMK appears to have consolidated the rest of the AIADMK-BJP votes in addition to its existing voter base, fortifying its landslide victory. For NTK, led by Seeman, this election was viewed as an opportunity to capitalise on the absence of mainstream opposition players. One of NTK’s best electoral performances to date remains its 24.5% vote share for Seeman in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections from Thiruvotriyur, one of the few instances where the party managed to secure its deposit. However, the party is unlikely to replicate that feat in Erode East. As per current estimates, the NTK candidate is poised to secure 16-17% of the vote, a significant jump from its 2023 bypoll showing of 10,827 votes, but still falling short of a breakout moment. The trends indicate that while NTK has gained votes, a relatively favourable political ground in favour of the DMK and the aggressive statements by Seeman against Periyar and Dravidian ideology in the last few weeks seem to have left it struggling to make deeper inroads. While the DMK’s success in Erode East reinforces its standing, the Congress, its key ally, may find itself increasingly dependent on its coalition partner. A senior Congress leader said the party’s dismal performance in the Delhi elections has further weakened its position in Tamil Nadu, “making us more dependent on DMK hereafter”. The by-election was also notable for its absence of high-profile campaigners, including Chief Minister M K Stalin and Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin, as DMK was confident of an easy win. The campaign was led by Housing Minister S Muthusamy and Erode MP K E Prakash. The final figures are expected to confirm a landslide for DMK, a moderate boost for NTK, and a further consolidation of Tamil Nadu’s electoral battle into a DMK versus BJP-AIADMK showdown in future contests.
