Decode Politics: How TMC scored an emphatic win in Bengal and why BJP stumbled again

The TMC continued its winning streak in south Bengal, snatching the seats of Bardhaman-Durgapur, Hooghly, Medinipur, and Barrackpur from the BJP. The party retained Asansol, which the BJP won in 2019 but lost in a bypoll in 2022.

The other area where the BJP suffered a setback is the tribal-dominated Jangalmahal region which has four Lok Sabha constituencies. In 2019, the BJP won Jhargram, Bankura, Bishnupur, and Purulia. But this time it could retain only Bishnupur, where incumbent MP Saumitra Khan narrowly defeated his estranged spouse Sujata Mondal of the TMC by 5,557 votes, and Purulia, where incumbent MP Jyotirmay Singh Mahato defeated Shantiram Mahato of the TMC by 17,079 votes.

In south Bengal, the BJP managed to retain the Bangaon and Ranaghat constituencies that are dominated by members of the Matua (refugee community) religious community. Overall, the BJP retained Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri, Alipurduars, Raiganj, Balurghat, Maldaha Uttar, Purulia, Bishnupur, Ranaghat and Bangaon seats. In addition, it won Kanthi and Tamluk.

What worked for the TMC?

The TMC’s vote share climbed from 43.3% to 45.76%. The party was able to keep its minority vote bank across the state almost intact. This helped the party take down state Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury who lost from the minority-dominated Baharampur constituency for the first time since 1999. The minority vote, which had the TMC worried last year after the Sagardighi Assembly bypoll loss, consolidated behind the party and took down CPI(M) contenders such as Md Selim, Sujan Chakraborty, Srijan Bhattacharya, and Dipsita Dhar.

According to a TMC leader, the BJP’s pro-Hindutva rhetoric from the second phase onwards did not help it consolidate the Hindu vote in Bengal as much as it would have expected even as it helped consolidate the Muslim vote behind the Mamata Banerjee-led party.

Like in 2021, the TMC also successfully used sentiments of Bengali sub-nationalism to paint the BJP as a party of “Bohiragoto (outsiders)” that had stopped the flow of central funds to the state. With the BJP not having as strong a regional face as Mamata Banerjee, this strategy seemed to work.

The Mamata government’s popular welfare schemes worked their wonders, especially in consolidating the woman vote. The long queues of women seen at polling stations throughout the seven phases of polling were a testament to that. One of the TMC’s biggest successes was the “Lakshmir Bhandar” scheme under which women between the ages of 25 and 60 are eligible to receive monthly financial assistance. While women from the general category are eligible to receive Rs 1,000 and women from Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) receive Rs 1,200.

“We always consider minority votes but the women’s vote bank now is one of our most valuable assets. In the 2016 Assembly polls, Kanyashree paid dividends. Lakshmi Bhandar, announced In 2021 after the Assembly poll victory, attracted women voters and now we got their vote because Mamata Banerjee kept her promise.”

What worked against the BJP?

BJP insiders said the issues of Ram Mandir, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), corruption allegations against TMC leaders, and the Sandeshkhali issue failed to give impetus to the party. According to a senior Bengal BJP leader, the Centre’s withholding funds for MGNREGS funds also hurt the party’s prospects. The party’s vote share fell from 40.25% to 38.73%.

“Seeing the celebrations over Ram Mandir inauguration, there was a clear indication that people were supporting us. But this did not translate into the votes. The corruption charges against the TMC also yielded no major response from the voters,” said the BJP leader.

Sources said the BJP not having a strong regional face also went against the party as it depended only on PM Modi to tide. “Over-dependence on central leadership cost us in this election. The infighting in some areas also went against our candidates,” said a BJP leader.

Another factor that went against the party is its delay in announcing candidates for all 42 seats in Bengal. It took almost one-and-a-half months for the party to announce its full candidate list after releasing a list of 20 nominees. “The state leadership will definitely hold meetings to introspect the Lok Sabha results in Bengal. All these will be discussed later,” said the BJP leader.