More than Congress, BJP, Rajasthan 2023 will be about Ashok Gehlot, Vasundhara Raje

If Gehlot is still standing tall towards the final leg of his term, it is largely due to his own capabilities as a past master of the game.

With Rajasthan alternating between Congress and BJP governments for three decades now, one can expect the Congress leader to further up that game. While at 71, some would call it Gehlot’s last big hurrah, he still has many irons in the fire, and knows that for Pilot, the ship may have sailed for this time at least.

So, expect several big-ticket scheme announcements in the January budget, aimed at every possible demographic, including, what is now on the table, gig workers. With the new Congress state in-charge Sukjinder Singh Randhawa drilling in the message that the Gehlot government needs to do more to market its welfare schemes, an advertising spree is likely up ahead.

The Gehlot government is already being accused of adopting a scorched earth policy for his re-election bid.

However, Pilot’s line of communication with Delhi means that he could still spring a surprise for Gehlot, and so the CM won’t be letting up on that front.

Ironically for two people who can’t be further apart, Vasundhara Raje finds herself virtually in the same boat as Gehlot – though the waters for her are choppier given that from the state level to the top, she has many detractors in the Narendra Modi dispensation.

The BJP leadership has been testing those waters, having installed Raje critic Satish Poonia as state president. However, Poonia has had limited success, and Raje remains the No. 1 crowd-puller for the BJP in Rajasthan. The former CM has also been trying to make herself more palatable to the party leadership by visiting temples, for one.

However, her Achilles’ heel as far as the BJP goes remains her independent streak, and her individual popularity, neither of which goes down well in a party now strictly controlled from the top.

Among those seeking to use the same to emerge as the BJP’s first choice should the party win are several with RSS roots.

For both Gehlot and Raje then, when the results come in, what will be most crucial is not just how many are standing in the other corner but how many are standing in theirs. Ticket distribution will thus be the key, to get as many loyalists in as possible.

The Congress is expected to try to strike a balance between Gehlot and Pilot’s men, though Raje will have a harder road in the BJP.

Among the other parties in the race, such as the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), BSP, Aam Aadmi Party, AIMIM and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), the spotlight will be on the RLP, BSP and BTP, courtesy the caste equations in the state.

The RLP has a good, if limited, influence among the Jats, the BSP will count on Dalit pockets in eastern Rajasthan, while the BTP’s hopes lie in tribal areas of Mewar.

Can Gehlot again prove that he is the one man in the state who can turn a match around in the final overs? Watch this space.