What explains BJP’s massive MP lead: Last-minute push, Congress’s organisational weaknesses

At 11.05 am, the trends showed that BJP leading in 150 seats, pushing down the Congress, which was expected to take advantage of the boredom factor against the Chouhan administration, to 69.

According to BJP leaders, the strong push from the party came in the four weeks ahead of voting on November 17. “It was almost like a surgical strike but with our organisational strength and mobilisation capacity,” said a BJP leader who was involved with the election planning in Madhya Pradesh. Party sources pointed out that while Modi led the campaign in Madhya Pradesh, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had taken control of the electioneering on the ground level.

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Chouhan was pushed into the background and he did not steer the party’s Jan Ashirwad Yatra, which was led by the central party leaders. Despite the boredom factor against the CM, the party took measures to cash in on his schemes that were popular among the women. “In the last few weeks, we laid out our political strategies and micro-management to get the karyakartas to fight this election and snatch the win from the Congress, which was already celebrating the edge it had,” said another senior leader who was part of strategising for the party.

According to him the difference between 2018 and this election was the active involvement of the cadre in the election process. In the BJP’s scheme of things, central India, where former BJP president Kushabhau Thakre built the organisation, the party’s mainstay has been the cadre and it spent time and resources to rebuild the organisation, infuse fresh blood, and strengthen the process of expansion and consolidation of its support base post the 2018 debacle.

Did Congress fail to sustain lead?

A BJP leader said the Congress failed to sustain its lead till the last minute due to the lack of organisational strength. “For example, on the day of polling, we had 90% of our booth committees functioning at 8.30 am while the Congress was scrambling to get their booths set even by 9.30 am. The high percentage of voter turnout in the first half itself happened because of our mobilisation,” he said. The state recorded over 76% turnout.

Admitting that fatigue with the state administration had been a factor against the BJP in the beginning, the leader argued that the central leadership’s move to field several high-profile leaders and MPs — including Union Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste — and national party general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya gave the electorate an impression that any of them could be BJP’s face after the elections.

Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh

Here, the trends at 11.05 am, as per the Election Commission website, showed that the BJP leading in 103 seats, with a clear edge over the Congress which was at 74 in the 200-member Assembly.

While Modi and his popularity remained its most significant weapon in its arsenal, the BJP’s campaign against the alleged appeasement politics of the Ashok Gehlot government appeared to help the party in a state that has over 90% of the population as Hindus. Although the party suffered a setback because of its lack of clarity about the state leadership, it countered it with a campaign over the deepening differences between Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.

Meanwhile, BJP leaders pointed out that in Chhattisgarh despite the lacklustre approach of its state unit in the past five years the party appears in a position to give a “decent” performance. What likely kept the BJP in contention here is the slew of promises that it unveiled just four days ahead of the first phase of polling on November 7, including cooking gas cylinders at Rs 500 for poor families and Rs 12,000 per year financial assistance to married women. Party leaders said there was an instant positive reaction to the promises. “Since they are promises by PM Modi, people tend to believe them,” said a Union Minister.

As of 11.05 am, as per the EC website, the fight in Chhattisgarh was turning out to be close, with the BJP having leads in 43 seats and the Congress close behind at 39.

The minus point for the BJP in this election will be its performance in Telangana, where as per the initial trends, it has leads in only seven seats despite its high-decibel campaign and the groundwork since 2019. But in the BJP’s strategy for Telangana, the Lok Sabha elections took priority, said leaders involved in the functioning of the state unit.