Bochahan bypoll: Snubbing Mallah leader Sahani, taking Bhumihars for granted cost BJP dearly

RJD candidate Amar Paswan, son of former Bochahan VIP MLA Musafir Paswan whose death necessitated the bypoll, had jumped the ship at the last minute and won the Bochahan bypoll by 36,763 votes. He got 82,116 votes against the BJP’s runner-up candidate Baby Kumari’s 45,353.

The important aspect of Bochahan bypoll result seems to be that BJP can no longer take EBC Sahani/ Nishad votes for granted. Even though BJP has several leaders, including MP Ajay Nishad, in its rank, VIP chief Mukesh Sahani seems to have been able to split away Mallah and some other votes from BJP. VIP got over 29,000 votes in the Assembly segment that has over 35,000 Mallah votes besides over 55,000 Scheduled Caste (SC) votes. This means the VIP seems to have cut away not just substantial Sahani votes but also some SC votes.

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Sahani’s candidate may not have won, but he seems to have been able to make a statement about having emerged as a potential voice of EBC Mallah, who form around 2.5 per cent of the state population with concentration in Muzaffarpur, Madhubani, Darbhanga Khagaria.

EBC votes in Bihar are called floating votes and Sahani and Dhanuk are its major components. EBCs never had a strong leader after former CM Karpoori Thakur. Though there has been strong EBC leaders like former MPs Mangani Lal Mandal and Captain Jainarayan Nishad, they hardly fill the slot of pan-Bihar EBC leader. Sahani is an emerging EBC leader and seems to have proved his point in Bochahan.

The Bochahan bypoll’s another takeaway is unusual shift of upper caste Bhumihar voters towards RJD, which is otherwise taken as its sworn enemies. About 20-25 per cent Bhumihar voters are said to have supported RJD. Several Bhumihar youths were seen sharing dais with RJD’s Leader of Opposition in Assembly Tejashwi Prasad Yadav. Bochahan has over 55,000 Bhumihar voters.

Bhumihars may not have been fully siding with RJD but a fair chunk of them do seem to send a message to BJP that they can never be taken for granted. Bochahan bypoll results may not be a hint towards shifting political affiliation but sending a message to the NDA and registering its ire towards miniscule or zero representation to its community at places of power. A local factor in Bochahan was former BJP MLA Suresh Sharma, a Bhumihar, dissociating himself from the Bochahan campaign. Sharma has been upset with the BJP after having lost 2020 Assembly polls. Sharma had also been upset with the party giving more weight to another Muzaffarpur leader, Ramsurat Rai (a Yadav), who is a minister. The NDA had won Bochahan thrice consecutively, but the RJD upset its applecart due to “upset Mallah” and “disgruntled Bhumihar” factors.