Reverberations of Assembly election results in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are being felt in Rajasthan, but a change in status quo in the state looks unlikely. In Gujarat, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot was a senior AICC observer and Raghu Sharma, former health minister in the Gehlot Cabinet, was the state in-charge. In Himachal Pradesh, while Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel was the senior observer, Congress leaders Sachin Pilot and Partap Singh Bajwa were appointed as observers this July. Gujarat saw the Congress drop from 77 seats in 2017 to just 17 in 2022, while the BJP registered a landslide, with 156 of 182 seats, the best performance by any party in the state. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress is set to form a government, with 40 out of 68 seats, reducing the BJP to 25. The contrast was 'celebrated' on social media by Pilot’s supporters, many of whom again called for handing over the reins of Rajasthan to the former deputy chief minister. Congress leader Sushil Asopa, who says he is a supporter of “generational change”, tweeted: “Congress could not win in Modi’s home state but Priyanka Gandhi ji and Sachin Pilot ji defeated BJP in BJP president (JP) Nadda’s home state. Now the time has come to hand over Congress in young hands, irrespective of the state.” Tagging Rahul Gandhi, Pilot supporter Vikram Singh Meena tweeted, “There is still time Rahul Gandhi ji, if you want to save Rajasthan then bring Sachin Pilot.” Meena is also the state president of Bhartiya Kisan Union’s Youth Wing. A Pilot loyalist said the former deputy CM “addressed over 20 rallies in Himachal and the Congress won in most of them”. “There is no leader in the Congress who can draw crowds across the country like Pilot. Rajasthan has not re-elected the incumbent government in the last three decades. Only (Sachin) Pilot can level the playing field and counter the BJP,” the loyalist told The Indian Express. Incidentally, while speaking about the Himachal results on Friday, Gehlot called the Congress's poll promise of restoring the old pension system as a major factor in its win. With no mention of Pilot, he said: "The campaigning was good and tickets were distributed to suitable candidates. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra herself canvassed for the party candidates. But along with this, (the promise of implementing) the old pension system had a huge role in winning the elections there.” On the other hand, speaking to some media outlets, Pilot called the Gujarat results “way less than our expectations”, and said the tally was too low. He added: “The Himachal results show that if the Congress deploys the right strategy and campaign, and conveys its message effectively, we can beat the BJP.” Since long, the Pilot camp has reasoned that the status quo in Rajasthan can be broken only through a fresh variable — Sachin Pilot himself. In Himachal Pradesh, the trend of not repeating the incumbent government goes further back to 1985, when the ruling party — the Congress — was repeated in the state after the Assembly election. But therein lies the probable argument of the Gehlot camp — that the Jai Ram Thakur government in Himachal would have been replaced irrespective of Pilot’s participation. The BJP almost bucked the trend with 43 per cent vote share against the Congress' 43.9 per cent, translating into a total difference of just 37,974 votes. The result in the Congress's favour does make Pilot look good, but it is not likely to have much of an impact on Rajasthan politics. CM Gehlot has an iron hold on the majority of party MLAs and has made it clear more than once that he won't step down willingly, even if the high command deigns so. Gehlot also remains central to the Congress's plans, as evident in the responsibilities the high command continues to invest in him despite the near-rebellion by his supporters over a chief ministership change only recently. The resignations submitted by around 90 MLAs to preempt any replacement are still pending with Assembly Speaker C P Joshi, in what is seen as a move to discourage the party high command from attempting to unseat him.
