Can Arvind Kejriwal in defeat be the Arvind Kejriwal on the up and up? Now comes the test

On February 8, Delhi denied him that chance. The New Delhi seat from where Kejriwal lost has given the Capital its CM since 1998 – first Sheila Dikshit and then Kejriwal. It has a small electorate of 1.09 lakh voters, is the seat literally of the country’s power and also has a large slum population. This time, it also saw the maximum voter deletions – nearly 40,000.

Kejriwal first arrived on Delhi’s political stage as part of the India Against Corruption movement whose face was Anna Hazare. The movement tapped into the discontent around the “inactive” UPA government at the Centre, as well as the BJP campaign of anti-corruption against it.

While the BJP led by Narendra Modi reaped the benefits of it at the Centre, in Delhi, the stage of the India Against Corruption protest, the gainer was Kejriwal. In 2013, stunning the Congress that had led Delhi for 15 years, he led the AAP to a 53 per cent vote share in the Assembly elections, with Kejriwal himself defeating incumbent chief minister Sheila Dikshit from New Delhi.

By winning in 2015 again with 67 out of 70 seats, and in 2020 with 62, Kejriwal went where no party had gone before within years of formation. By winning Punjab too in 2022, the AAP became the only regional party to be in power in two states.

Kejriwal in defeat hence marks a completely new chapter for the party, as he has personally not suffered a loss since that 2013 win, barring when he stood against Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The 2014 election, though, was more symbolic than anything else.

Even when the AAP suffered setbacks in its bids to expand, New Delhi provided the cushion Kejriwal needed to stay in contention.

Now, not only has Kejriwal himself lost, but also former deputy CM Manish Sisodia, his No. 2 and the face of its education model – the AAP government’s most successful initiative. A small consolation for the party was incumbent CM Atishi’s victory against the BJP’s Ramesh Bidhuri from Kalkaji.

Can the AAP survive the Delhi loss and bounce back is the test before the party – for its future not just in the Capital but also nationally – particularly given that it draws its oxygen from Kejriwal.

What may be crucial in this is the party’s loose structure, not bound by an ideology – the AAP has often expressed pride in this, saying repeatedly that its only ideology is work. However, this also leaves the party vulnerable without the glue of power, compared to parties with a stronger worker base such as the BJP and Congress.

But the AAP has a good starting point as it still holds 43.55 per cent of the vote share in the Capital, just 2.3 per cent behind the BJP’s. This is impressive given the anti-incumbency of 12 years against the AAP, 10 of those as virtually unchallenged. This translates to 22 seats in the Delhi Assembly, giving the Capital its first real Opposition in a decade.

In their first reactions after the results, both Kejriwal and Atishi vowed to play the role of a constructive opposition that will not disappear from among the people. In a video message, Kejriwal thanked all AAP volunteers for “fighting a very good election”, and said: “We did a lot of work in the last decade… We improved, we did a lot of work on improving water availability and the infrastructure… But we will not give up… We will not just be a constructive opposition but will also do social work, and help people in our personal capacity. We did not come into politics for power, we came to serve the people.”

Sources in the party said the senior leadership would also focus more on Punjab, and other states – asserting that the Delhi loss won’t curtail its national ambitions. “All is not lost. We still are a national party and are running a government in Punjab with a more than comfortable majority. The loss in Delhi is an opportunity to expand into other states and consolidate our positions there,” a senior leader claimed.

However, any such aspiration depends on whether the AAP can withstand the second challenge – and perhaps the biggest – of keeping its flock together.

The pressure from the BJP is expected to be immense, and in the run-up to the Delhi elections, four present and former ministers of the party had quit, with Kailash Gahlot being the biggest loss. The former finance and transport minister, Gahlot was among the winners on Saturday, emerging victorious from Bijwasan, a seat he contested from for the first time ever. The seat that he vacated – Najafgarh – was also won by the BJP.

Eight sitting MLAs who were denied tickets by the AAP in the run-up to the polls had also shifted to the BJP.

A party insider said they were not worried. “We do not expect party workers and leaders, who stayed with us through what was perhaps our most trying time, to leave at this time. The assurance and direction, however, has to come from the top. Already several people have met Arvind ji. A more structured discussion is expected in the coming two-three days,” the insider said.