Addendum: Dust settled, BJP and Shinde Sena realise need to be allies in deed

It started with a curious full-page advertisement across dailies in Maharashtra citing a mysterious survey that put Shinde ahead of Fadnavis in a poll for most popular CM. The Shinde Sena appeared only too glad, till the Opposition turned the knife into the BJP, over the facts cited the “survey”, over photos of only Shinde and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the advertisement, and over the slogan blazoned across it of “Modi for Delhi, Shinde for Maharashtra”.

The Shinde Sena then distanced itself from the advertisement, attributing it to an unnamed well-wisher. The next day, saw a new advertisement, again unattributed, this time featuring not just Shinde, but also Fadnavis, Amit Shah and the BJP symbol; without any grand slogans but one eye-catching number about 49% of the people surveyed supporting the Shinde Sena and BJP.

After two days of avoiding being seen with Shinde in public, Fadnavis made a joint appearance with the CM, when came out the Fevicol and Sholay references.

Shinde Sena minister Deepak Kesarkar said: “The advertisement was by a well-wisher. There was never any intention to attack the BJP or Fadnavis. We are contesting elections together and are in government. Why would we do such a thing?”

However, while the cracks might have been Fevicol-led, it could be just a quick fix – particularly when the pulls and pressures of a coalition start showing, as the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls draw near. What is required is grassroots coordination, and the two parties seem far from that right now.

The starting hurdle is that the Shinde camp is not willing to play second fiddle in the 2024 polls, to the dismay of the BJP, which perhaps thought that was a given, on the basis of sheer numbers. The mystery advertisement is being seen as part of this muscle-flexing by the Shinde Sena.

For an outfit that still has to prove itself in the public’s mind as the real Sena – and not an adjunct to the BJP’s muscle and money power – this is crucial for the Shinde Sena’s longevity. At least half-a-dozen Shinde camp leaders admit this, adding that the BJP should not forget that without the support of the 40 MLAs it brought to the table, as well as 10 Independents, the BJP would not be in power in Maharashtra.

Sources quote a statement by a senior Shinde Sena MP, Gajanan Kirtikar, at a recent internal meeting: “It is time to show the collective strength of 50 MLAs.”

The reason the alliance might survive the Shinde Sena’s tough talk and the advertisement row is that the BJP is keen to keep it going.

In his statement after the advertisement row, state BJP president Chandraskhekhar Bawnakule said, “What happened has hurt us. But we are willing to move forward. It is a closed chapter.” He also cited the second advertisement as a peace offering. “We will work together as allies.”

There are leaders like a senior BJP functionary who requested anonymity who are bristling at how the party was put in a spot. The leader said: “Differences within any coalition are natural, and each party has the right to chart its own roadmap and expand. But what was wrong was to take the battle to the public… If the Shinde faction was upset, they should have raised it at an appropriate forum in Delhi. Both PM Modi and Shah would have given audience to Shinde.”

These leaders also argue that the BJP had done its share of the coalition dharma, having made the big concession of chief ministership to the Shinde Sena, despite being the larger party. A BJP strategist said if the original advertisement was a ploy by Shinde, “projecting himself as larger than life”, it had only hurt him by “exposing differences within the coalition and affecting his personal image”.

The strategist cited the reactions that ridiculed the survey for citing Shinde as the preferred No. 1 CM candidate.

However, the larger message from the top in the BJP is restraint. Barring exceptions such as BJP MP Anil Bonde, who quipped, “A frog cannot become an elephant”, and posters in Ulhasnagar and Dharashiv against the Shinde Sena, no BJP leader has personally attacked Shinde.

But the BJP might need to do more, having first stirred troubled waters by suggesting that it was keen to contest the Lok Sabha seat currently held by Shinde’s son Shrikant, and by openly questioning the Shinde Sena’s expectations of 22 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP top leadership has maintained silence over the Shrikant seat matter.

As the coalition edges towards its one year anniversary, the Shinde camp is also suspicious about recent reports saying the performance of five of its nine ministers in the state has been “poor”.

With rumours circulating of a “BJP hand”, a senior BJP leader said the party had nothing to do with this: “It is the prerogative of the CM to decide the Council of Ministers. Why would the BJP give its opinion on who should remain or not in the Cabinet?”

In 2019, the BJP had won 23 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra and the undivided Shiv Sena, its ally then, 18 – or 41 of the 48. In 2024, the BJP has set a target of “42-plus” with the Shinde Sena. In the Assembly, its target is “200-plus” out of 288 seats. The BJP realises it will need the Shinde Sena for that. Besides, after the Karnataka loss, the BJP has shown a new largeheartedness towards allies.

Going forward, sources said, the BJP will not do anything to ruffle the Shinde Sena’s feathers, and expects the same from the CM’s camp. A Shinde Sena leader said the party would have no problem with this, adding that the message that needed to be given had been given: “Nobody should take anybody for granted.”